Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 12, 2025
An NL matchup goes down on Friday, September 12, as the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road to play the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET, so continue reading for our Pirates vs Nationals prediction. This is written before Thursday's game has ended.
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Pirates are Last in NL Central
Pittsburgh is 64-82 entering play on Thursday, which is last in the NL Central, as the Pirates are on a five-game losing streak after sweeping the Dodgers. Pittsburgh is hitting .231, which ranks 28th. While on the road, they are hitting .213. Against the Nationals, Pittsburgh is hitting .254 in four at-bats.
The Pirates are expected to start Mitch Keller, who's 6-14 with a 4.16 ERA in 29 starts this season. In his last outing, he went 6.1 innings, allowing 2 runs against the Brewers. Keller is 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA in his career against the Nationals. Pittsburgh has a team ERA of 3.87, which ranks 13th.
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Nationals Starting Alvarez
Washington enters play on Thursday with a record of 60-85, which is last in the NL East as the Nationals conclude their four-game series on the road against the Marlins. Washington is expected to start Andrew Alvarez, who's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two starts this season. In his last outing, he went 4.2 innings, allowing two runs against the Cubs. Washington has a team ERA of 5.30, which ranks 29th.
The Nationals are hitting .245, which ranks 17th, while at home, they are hitting .244. In the month of September, the Nationals are hitting .272, while against Pittsburgh, they are hitting .175 in four games.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pick
- Nationals ML
Pittsburgh and Washington have both struggled this season, but in the series opener, take the Nationals at home to get the win. Alvarez has pitched well in his two starts, and he should be able to carve up the Pirates' lineup, which is one of the worst in the majors. Keller, meanwhile, has been solid, but Pittsburgh's bullpen is an issue, as the Nationals will be able to get after the bullpen to get the win here.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Nationals
- Under
The under is a great spot here as both offenses have struggled, while Keller and Alvarez have both pitched well and should be able to limit the offense. Although Washington is one of the best over teams this season, Keller will pitch well to limit the damage. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 81-60-5 in hitting the under this season, while the four games these two teams have played are averaging 6 runs per game, so take the under here.
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