Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 14, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with a fun matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates (65-84) and the Washington Nationals (61-87), and we’ve got you covered with our Pirates vs. Nationals prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 11:35 amET from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Pirates Bounce Back, Beat Nats
The expectations weren’t very high for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, mainly due to the fact that they continuously fail to surround their young talent with seasoned veterans. The Buccos own the fourth-lowest payroll ($82.7 million) in the league, and interestingly, Pittsburgh has the fourth-lowest win% (.436) this season. The Buccos come into the series finale at just 65-84, which puts them in the cellar of the N.L. Central. They had lost seven straight games, but snapped the slide with a 5-1 victory over the Nationals on Saturday.
It was a late offensive surge that guided the Pirates to their 5-1 victory on Saturday. Andrew McCutchen put them ahead with a two-run single in the 8th, and the Buccos piled on three subsequent insurance runs. The late rally meant that Carmen Mlodzinski (2.0 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief.
- Mike Burrows heads to the bump for the Pirates on Sunday, and the 25-year-old has been a serviceable option for the club this year.
- Over 20 appearances (85.2 IP), the right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Burrows last pitched on Tuesday against the Orioles, and he limited them to one earned run on two hits and a walk over 4.0 innings.
- He didn’t qualify for a decision, but the Pirates eventually lost the game 3-2 in 11 innings.
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Nationals in the Cellar of the N.L. East
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals are in a similar spot as the Pirates. They have a young core of talented prospects, but now they’re trying to refine the players and surround them with solid vets. So far, it hasn’t worked out, as the Nationals are just 61-87 and have the second-worst record in the National League. Only the Rockies (41-107) are worse than the Nationals. Washington is in the midst of a respectable 8-4 run, but they’re coming off of a 5-1 defeat to Pittsburgh on Saturday.
Saturday’s 5-1 defeat fell on the bullpen, which isn’t surprising because they’re one of the worst in the Majors. Cole Henry (0.1 IP, 2 ER) ultimately took the loss in relief. Offensively, the lone run came courtesy of a Robert Hassell III RBI-knock in the 6th.
- Cade Cavalli will oppose Burrows on Sunday, and the young hurler hasn’t been overpowering this season.
- Over seven starts (34.2 IP), the right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.
- Cavalli is coming off of a solid 5.0-inning performance against the Marlins, where he held them to two earned runs on six hits and a walk over 5.0 innings.
- He picked up his second consecutive win in the 15-7 barnburner.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pick
Moneyline Pick for Pirates vs. Nationals
- Washington Nationals Moneyline (-115) (5 units)
We’re getting a pick ‘em price (PIT -101, WSH -115) in the nation’s capital on Sunday, and I will gladly take a flier on Washington in this spot.
Mostly, this is a fade of the Pirates. They’ve been horrendous recently, going just 1-7 SU in their last eight games. Additionally, Pittsburgh is an abysmal 23-51 SU on the road. For perspective, only the Rockies (18-55 SU) have fewer road wins in the Majors. The Nationals are on a respectable 8-4 SU run, and they’ve also won Cade Cavalli’s last two starts. I’ll play the Curly W’s at home at a favorable price.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Nationals
- Under 8.5 (-105) (5 units)
Both of these starters have been in pretty good form recently. For Cavalli, he has logged a 3.60 ERA in his last two outings (10.0 IP). He’ll take on a Pittsburgh offense that’s just 27th in wOBA (.241) and has the fifth-highest K% (28.4%) over the last week. On the flip side, Mike Burrows has posted a very impressive 1.50 ERA across his last five starts (18.0 IP).
Offensively, both offenses are scoring less than 4.5 runs per game this year. Washington is 19th in scoring (4.30 RPG), while Pittsburgh is last (3.59 RPG). Sure, the questionable bullpens make me nervous, but at the same time, these are two of the worst offenses in the Majors. I’ll play the under 8.5 runs in this early-morning MLB clash.
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