Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Picks - September 13, 2025
The MLB is winding down with an end-of-season clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs the Washington Nationals. Look inside for our prediction and picks. The Pittsburgh Pirates (64-84, 22-51 away) will take on the Washington Nationals (61-86, 30-42 home) on Saturday, September 13, 2025, at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., with first pitch scheduled for 3:05 PM ET. Pittsburgh will send right-hander Bubba Chandler (2-1, 7.36 ERA) to the mound, while Washington counters with left-hander Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 1.86 ERA). The Pirates lead the season series 3-2, having swept the Nationals in their first four-game series back in April. Both teams are struggling, with Pittsburgh on a seven-game losing streak and Washington coming off a 6-5 win over the Pirates after losing two straight to Miami.
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Pirates Struggling to Find Momentum
The Pittsburgh Pirates suffered a tough 6-5 loss to the Washington Nationals, extending their losing streak to seven games. Despite a strong offensive effort with 10 hits, including a two-run homer by Spencer Horwitz and two RBIs from Bryan Reynolds, the Pirates’ bullpen faltered late. Mitch Keller pitched 5.1 solid innings, allowing two runs, but Kyle Nicolas gave up four runs in the seventh, including a two-run homer by Dylan Crews. A ninth-inning rally brought the Pirates within one, but James Wood’s game-saving throw at home ended their comeback attempt.
Injuries have also plagued the Pirates, with key players like Jack Suwinski (10-day IL) and Anthony Solometo (60-day IL) sidelined. Bubba Chandler, their probable starter, has struggled in limited action this season, posting a 7.36 ERA over 14.2 innings. The Pirates’ team stats reflect their struggles, with a .232 batting average (ranked 27th in MLB), 527 runs scored (28th), and a .305 on-base percentage (26th). Their pitching staff has been a bright spot, with a 3.87 ERA (8th) and a .237 opponent batting average (6th). However, their defense has been inconsistent, averaging 0.65 errors per game.
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Nationals Shine with Late-Game Heroics
The Washington Nationals bounced back from two tough losses to the Marlins, including a 5-0 shutout, with a 6-5 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite early struggles, the Nationals showcased their offensive potential, highlighted by Dylan Crews’ two-run homer in the seventh inning and Brady House’s solo shot in the sixth. James Wood, who leads the team with 27 home runs and 88 RBIs, made a game-saving throw in the ninth to secure the win. The bullpen, led by P.J. Poulin and Jose Ferrer, held off a late Pirates rally to end the game.
Andrew Alvarez, the Nationals’ probable starter, has been impressive in limited action, boasting a 1.86 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 9.2 innings. The Nationals’ team stats highlight their offensive strengths, with a .245 batting average (16th), 626 runs scored (19th), and 140 home runs (15th). However, their pitching staff has struggled, with a 5.30 ERA (29th) and a .267 opponent batting average (28th). Defensively, the Nationals average 0.72 errors per game, which ranks near the bottom of the league.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pick
Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Nationals
- Washington Nationals -1.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have struggled against the spread recently, but the Nationals have been slightly better at home, covering 42.3% of the time. The Pirates, on the other hand, have covered just 37.7% of the time as an away team. The Nationals have also been more consistent against the run line in non-division games, covering 51.5% of the time compared to the Pirates’ 43.4%. Additionally, the Nationals have a better record after a win (51.7%) compared to the Pirates’ 36.7% after a loss. Given the Nationals’ recent offensive outbursts and Alvarez’s strong pitching, Washington has the edge in this matchup. The Pirates’ struggles on the road and Chandler’s high ERA make it difficult to trust Pittsburgh. Go with the Nationals!
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Nationals
- Under 8 (4 Units)
The Nationals have been a strong over team recently, with a 73.7% over rate in games following one day of rest. Similarly, they’ve hit the over in 56.3% of games as an underdog. The Pirates, however, have leaned toward the under, with a 57.7% under rate in all games this season. Recent matchups between these two teams have been low-scoring, with three of their four games in April going under the total. With Alvarez’s strong pitching and the Pirates’ offensive struggles, this game is likely to stay under the projected total. Go UNDER and Good Luck!
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