San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 16, 2025
In the first game of a three-game National League series, the San Diego Padres are taking on the New York Mets inside Citi Field on Tuesday evening in our Padres vs. Mets prediction. Both teams were off on Monday heading into this pivotal series. The Padres are second in the NL West with an 82-68 record and are sending right-hander Michael King to the mound. The Mets are second in the NL East with a 77-73 record and have righty Clay Holmes getting the ball. From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for the San Diego Padres at the New York Mets highlight the edge.
Padres Looking to Capture NL West Title
The San Diego Padres are looking to continue winning after their 9-6 home win over the Colorado Rockies on Sunday. The lineup was able to go 13-for-37 with three walks and a pair of strikeouts on the day as Jackson Merrill hit a home run and Fernando Tatis Jr stole a base. The Padres went 6-for-16 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight men on base. Yu Darvish secured the win as he allowed three runs in five innings of work.
The Padres are sending right-hander Michael King to pitch and he is stepping up as in 12 starts, he is 4-2 in 62.2 innings with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has been limiting the amount of hits as he has a .203 batting average against so far. King faced the Mets once last season in a loss as he pitched five innings and allowed five runs (one earned) on three hits with a hit by pitch, three walks, and seven strikeouts.
Injury Report for San Diego
- Pitcher David Morgan: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Nestor Cortes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Jason Adam: Quad (OUT)
- Shortstop Xander Bogaerts: Foot (OUT)
- Pitcher Jhony Brito: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Joe Musgrove: Elbow (OUT)
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Mets Looking to Avoid an Epic Collapse
The New York Mets are looking to recover after Sunday’s 5-2 10-inning walk-off home win over the Texas Rangers in their most recent game. The Mets were able to go 7-for-34 with five walks and nine strikeouts at the plate as Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso hit home runs while Francisco Lindor stole a base. New York finished 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position while leaving eight men on base. Nolan McLean did not factor into the decision as he pitched six shutout innings.
Right-hander Clay Holmes is going to be taking the mound for the New York Mets in this game and has been pitching well as he is 11-8 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 151.0 innings over 29 starts. He has been doing a great job in terms of limiting the number of home runs hit as he has allowed 12 this year. Holmes faced the Padres once this season in a loss as he allowed four runs (two earned) on eight hits with two hit by pitches, two walks, and three strikeouts.
Injury Report for New York
- Left fielder Jesse Winker: Back (OUT)
- Catcher Luis Torrens: Forearm (OUT)
- Center fielder Tyronte Taylor: Hamstring (OUT)
- Pitcher Frankie Montas: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Max Kranick: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Dedniel Nunez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tylor Megill: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Griffin Canning: Achilles (OUT)
- Pitcher Danny Young: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Minter: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Christian Scott: Elbow (OUT)
- Third baseman Nick Madrigal: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Drew Smith: Elbow (OUT)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Pick
Spread Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- San Diego Padres ML (4 units)
The road/home splits show a slight difference as Michael King is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA and a .227 batting average against in 17.1 innings (three road starts) while Clay Holmes is 5-2 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 75.1 innings (14 home starts) right now. There is a significant gap with how these teams are pitching in September, as the Padres are eighth in baseball with a 3.69 team ERA while the Mets are down at 27th with a 5.68 team ERA up to this point. The Padres have won the previous four games against the Mets so go with the San Diego Padres to secure the win.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
- Under (5 units)
These bullpens are doing well throughout the season as San Diego leads MLB with a 3.13 reliever ERA while New York is 17th with a 4.11 bullpen ERA so far. During the previous 15 days, these teams are struggling to get much going offensively as the Padres are 19th with a .713 team OPS while the Mets are 20th with a .701 team OPS in that span. All in all, go with the under to hit as the better bet here.
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