San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 23, 2026

The San Diego Padres visit the Atlanta Braves on Thursday at 12:15 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. San Diego is 50-51 and sits third in the NL West, 13.5 games behind the first-place Dodgers. The Padres have split the first two games of this series after an 8-3 victory on Tuesday and have gone 2-3 over their last five games. Atlanta owns a 58-42 record and leads the NL East by three games despite Tuesday's loss. The Braves are 30-20 at home and have won three of their last five contests. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.

San Diego Padres Looking to Build on Tuesday's Win

San Diego is batting .230 while scoring 415 runs with 762 hits, 112 home runs, a .306 on-base percentage, and a .382 slugging percentage. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with a .286 batting average, 112 hits, and 25 stolen bases. Manny Machado has supplied the power with 22 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Ty France is batting .282 with 15 home runs and a .551 slugging percentage. Jackson Merrill has also contributed 13 home runs and 43 RBIs.

The Padres have posted a 4.21 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .246. San Diego pitchers have recorded 819 strikeouts against 362 walks through 101 games. The staff has been inconsistent throughout the season, although the Padres responded well Tuesday by limiting Atlanta to three runs after allowing seven combined runs over their previous two losses.

Injuries: David Morgan (15-Day IL), Samad Taylor (10-Day IL), Jeremiah Estrada (15-Day IL), Lucas Giolito (15-Day IL), Nick Pivetta (60-Day IL).

Atlanta Braves Looking to Respond at Home

Atlanta continues to produce one of the National League's better offenses, batting .248 with 495 runs, 845 hits, 132 home runs, a .316 on-base percentage, and a .416 slugging percentage. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 26 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Michael Harris II is batting .301 with 107 hits and 18 home runs. Drake Baldwin has added 18 home runs with a team-best .362 on-base percentage, and Ozzie Albies has contributed 15 home runs and 54 RBIs.

The Braves own a 3.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 batting average. Atlanta pitchers have recorded 843 strikeouts against 332 walks and continue to rank among the better staffs in baseball. Even after Tuesday's loss, the Braves have allowed only 14 runs over their last five games.

Injuries: Martin Perez (15-Day IL), Ronald Acuna Jr. (10-Day IL), Ha-Seong Kim (10-Day IL), AJ Smith-Shawver (60-Day IL), Robert Suarez (15-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

San Diego Padres – Griffin Canning

Canning is 1-8 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP across 59.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 64 hits, 32 walks, and nine home runs while striking out 59 batters. He has struggled to limit baserunners and enters this matchup against one of the league's strongest offensive lineups.

Atlanta Braves – Chris Sale

Sale is 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 105 innings. The veteran left-hander has allowed only 86 hits while striking out 123 batters against 25 walks. Sale has surrendered just eight home runs all season and continues to provide Atlanta with dominant outings.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Game Pick

• Atlanta Braves

Atlanta holds advantages across nearly every category, including record, home performance, batting average, runs scored, hits, home runs, ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. The Braves also send Sale to the mound, giving them one of the biggest pitching advantages on Thursday's schedule. Canning's 6.67 ERA and 1.62 WHIP create a difficult matchup against an Atlanta lineup that has produced 495 runs and 132 home runs this season. The Braves are in a strong position to bounce back with a win in the final game of the series.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick

• Over

Atlanta's lineup has enough power to produce several scoring opportunities against Canning, who has struggled throughout the season. Olson, Harris, Baldwin, and Albies headline an offense that ranks among the National League leaders in production. San Diego also showed Tuesday that it can contribute offensively after scoring eight runs in the series. With the Padres capable of adding a few runs even against Sale and Atlanta expected to generate steady offense, the over is the play.