San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, October 2nd, 2025
The San Diego Padres (1-1) bounced back and evened up this Wild Card series on Wednesday, beating the Cubs (1-1) on the road in a 3-0 affair. The National League foes are now set to play a do-or-die Game 3 on Thursday, and we’ve got you covered with our Padres vs. Cubs prediction. Below, I’ll get you set with the key information for Game 3, including diving into the starting pitching between Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon. First pitch is set for 3:08 ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Padres Bounce Back, Blank the Cubs
The San Diego Padres had their backs up against the wall entering Wednesday’s wild-card contest, but they leaned on their superstars and top-tier pitching staff to secure a win and extend the series. They beat the Cubs 3-0. Dylan Cease (3.2 IP, 0 ER) was solid in his start, but it was the bullpen that delivered the win. Adrian Morejon (2.1 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief, while Mason Miller (2.1 IP, 0 ER) logged a hold and Robert Suarez (1.1 IP, 0 ER) registered the save. Offensively, Jackson Merrill got the party started with a sacrifice fly in the 1st, but it was Manny Machado’s two-run blast in the 5th that really changed the momentum and helped get the Friars the win.
From here, the Padres are priced at +100 to win the series (a.k.a the moneyline in Game 3). They sit at +1600 to win the World Series.
- Yu Darvish heads to the bump for the Padres on Thursday, and the 39-year-old hurler wasn’t very productive in 16 starts (72.0 IP) this season.
- The right-hander enters this game at 5-5, bringing in a 4.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
- Darvish closed the regular season against the Diamondbacks on September 26th, and he limited them to two earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5.0 innings.
- He logged the win in the 7-4 victory, as the Friars improved to 4-0 in his last four outings.
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Cubs Stifled In Game 2
The Chicago Cubs pulled off a come-from-behind 3-1 victory in Tuesday’s series opener, but after getting blanked 3-0 in Game 2, they’re now in a do-or-die spot. The offense was stifled against San Diego on Wednesday, logging only four hits. Seiya Suzuki hit a double, but ended up being one of five runners left on base. The Cubs were 0-for-3 with RISP. As for the pitching, opener Andrew Kittredge (1.0 IP, 1 ER) took the loss.
Game 3 is basically a pick ‘em, but Chicago does have the slimmest of edges at the sportsbooks, sitting as low as -110. They’ll need their offense, which finished fifth in runs per game (4.88) this season, to come alive and provide some run support. A win here would book a trip to Milwaukee to take on a division rival in the Brewers.
- Jameson Taillon will oppose Darvish in this high-stakes elimination game, and the 33-year-old starter was a serviceable option in 2025.
- The right-hander went 11-7 in the regular season with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
- Taillon last pitched on Saturday against the Cardinals, so he’s on normal rest. He tossed 6.0 innings and held them to one earned run on three hits and two walks over 6.0 innings.
- He picked up the win in the 7-3 victory, as the Cubs moved to 5-1 in his last six outings.
Padres vs. Cubs Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (+100) (5 units)
The oddsmakers are saying this game is a pick ‘em (SD +100, CHC -110), and I 100% agree. However, someone has to prevail and advance to the NLDS, and I’m riding with the Padres to get there. They leaned on their strength on Wednesday, pulling out a 3-0 win behind a dominant performance from the bullpen.
Really, I view this starting pitching matchup as a wash. Yu Darvish has a ton of playoff experience, while Chicago’s Jameson Taillon has been lights out as of late. The difference maker in this series is this elite San Diego bullpen. The Padres finished the regular season ranked first in each of the following categories: ERA (3.06), WHIP (1.15), and opposing batting average (.209). So far in the postseason, they have a 1.08 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP, compared to the Cubs’ marks of 1.42 and 0.63. It’s pretty tight, but with absolute horses like Mason Miller and Robert Suarez at the disposal of Mike Shildt, I have to ride with San Diego to secure the win – especially with this +100 payout.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- Under 7.5 (-115) (5 units)
I’m surprised to see a total of 7.5 runs in this game. I was thinking we’d be closer to the 6.5-run range. So, with that being said, I will gladly take the under at this elevated number. Jameson Taillon has been dialed in this down the stretch. During his final six starts (34.1 IP), the right-hander logged an incredible 1.57 ERA. At home this year, Taillon’s ERA was a respectable 3.05 and opponents were hitting just .204 against him.
As for Darvish, it’s all about the head-to-head numbers. The right-hander has limited Chicago’s current roster to a slash line of .194/.272/.280 over 93 at-bats. Last postseason, Darvish logged a 1.98 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP in two starts (13.0 IP). I think he dials it up on Thursday afternoon. The pitching staffs always rise up with the stakes increasing, and that’s what I’m expecting in this one. Give me the under.
