San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Use Code SSWC The MLB Wild Card Round is upon us, and one of the four first-round matchups on Tuesday pits the San Diego Padres (90-72 , 0-0) against the Chicago Cubs (92-70, 0-0). We’ve got you covered with our Padres vs. Cubs prediction for Game 1. Below I’ll recap each team’s 2025 season and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 3:08 ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Padres Enter on a 7-1 Run
The San Diego Padres are back in the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons, and their most successful run in recent history was an NLCS appearance in 2022. San Diego finished the 2025 regular season with a record of 90-72, which slated them 3.0 games behind the first-place Dodgers in the N.L. West. The Padres enter the playoffs playing fantastic baseball, as they won seven of their final eight games. This includes a divisional sweep of the Diamondbacks (7-4, 5-1, 12-4) this past weekend.
From this point, the Padres are roughly a pick ‘em (SD -105, CHC -115) to prevail in this road series against the Cubs. They come in at +1400 to win the World Series. Statistically, San Diego averaged 4.33 runs per game (18th) this season, and their strength was their bullpen, which ranked first in both ERA (3.06) and WHIP (1.15).
- Nick Pivetta will toe the rubber for game one of the NLWC series on Tuesday, and the 32-year-old starter has been lights out in his debut campaign with the Padres.
- The right-hander enters Tuesday’s game at 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA (10th) and a 0.99 WHIP (fifth). His 190 strikeouts are the 16th-most in the Majors.
- Pivetta is on more than a week’s rest, as his last start was a 5.2-inning effort (3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 5 K) against the Brewers on September 22nd.
- He took a no-decision in the 5-4 victory, as the Padres moved to 6-4 in his last 10 starts.
Cubs Sweep the Cardinals To End the Year
The Chicago Cubs lost their ace, Justin Steele (elbow), early in the season, but the organization overcame the adversity and posted a playoff-worthy record of 92-70. This was the fourth-best record in the National League, and it put them 5.0 games behind the first-place Brewers in the N.L. Central. The Cubs come into Tuesday’s Wild Card round on the heels of a 4-6 finish to the regular season. However, after suffering an 0-5 stretch, they went 4-1 and swept the Cardinals (12-1, 7-3, 2-0) to close the year.
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The Cubs are a slim -115 favorite to win this series and advance to take on the top-ranked Brewers. Chicago went 3-3 against San Diego, and when factoring in the home-field advantage, it’s likely why we’re seeing them as the slightest of favorites. They’re sitting as high as +1500 to win the World Series this year.
- The Cubs will roll with Matthew Boyd in Tuesday’s opener, and the veteran hurler has looked solid in 2025.
- In 31 starts (179.2 IP), the left-hander has gone 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA (15th) and a 1.09 WHIP (14th).
- It’s standard rest for Boyd, who’s coming off of a 5.1-inning performance against the Mets on Wednesday, where he held them to two earned runs on two hits and a walk.
- He picked up the win in the 10-3 victory, as the Cubs improved to 3-0 in his last three outings.
Padres vs. Cubs Pick
Moneyline Wild Card Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (-102) (5 units)
Like the series (SD -105, CHC -115), Game 1 of the NLWC round is priced in the pick ‘em range (SD -102, CHC -115), with the slightest of leans toward Chicago. For me, there are just too many question marks surrounding the Cubs to make a case to back them here. Kyle Tucker (calf) finally returned for Chicago, but he has gone just 1-for-11 (.091) in three games back. And, even though Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA) has been good overall this season, the left-hander closed the season by logging a 5.31 ERA in his final four outings (20.1 IP).
Meanwhile, the Padres appear to be catching fire and living up to the hype surrounding their star-studded lineup. They’ve won seven of their last eight games, outscoring the opposition 47-21. That’s an average of 2.6 runs against per game, which speaks to their dominant pitching staff. With Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA) starting and this top-ranked San Diego bullpen (3.06 ERA) at Mike Shildt’s disposal, I expect to see the Padres grind out a Game 1 victory.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- Under 7.0 (-106) (5 units)
When these teams met in the regular season, they split the series 3-3, as well as seeing under at a line of 7.0 runs go 3-3. I’m riding with the under in Game 1. For me, the crux of this bet on the under is San Diego’s pitching staff. Pivetta was lights out this season, ranking 10th in ERA (2.87) and fifth in WHIP (0.99). The Padres’ relief staff ranked first in ERA (3.06), WHIP (1.15), and opposing batting average (.209). They’ll take on a Cubs offense that finished a pedestrian 16th in wOBA (.313) and 11th in ISO (.167) in the second half.
The wind will also be a factor in this game, blowing in from dead center at around 7.7 MPH at first pitch. Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA) already possesses a low 0.95 HR/9 rate, and with the wind at his back, I don’t expect to see much power from the Padres in this game. Even though both offenses are playing well, we’re moving onto the postseason – which is a whole different ballgame. The pitching always rises up when the stakes are increased. I’m taking the under.
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