San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, October 1st, 2025
Use Code SSWC It was a thrilling slate of MLB Wild Card games on Tuesday, and now that the dust has settled, four teams are just one win away from advancing to the Divisional Round. That includes the Chicago Cubs (1-0), who took care of the visiting San Diego Padres (0-1) in a 3-1 series-opening contest.
Below I’ll get you set with the key information for Game 2, including diving into the starting pitching and wrapping up with a Padres vs. Cubs prediction. First pitch is set for 3:08 ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for our other game breakdowns.
Padres Stifled at the Plate
The San Diego Padres are competing in their fourth MLB postseason in the last six seasons, but this ninth-highest payroll roster ($216.8 million) is already on the brink of an early exit. San Diego went 90-72 in the regular season, which was good enough for a second-place finish in the N.L. West behind Los Angeles (3.0 GB). The Padres opened up the postseason with a road loss to the Cubs (3-1) on Tuesday. Playing away from Petco has been an issue in 2025, as the Friars went just 38-43 on the road during the regular campaign.
Diving deeper into Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat, it was the offense that was stifled and limited to four hits. Xander Bogaerts went 2-for-4 with an RBI, driving in Jackson Merrill in the 2nd inning. Nick Pivetta (5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K) actually looked very good in his start, but he gave up back-to-back bombs in the 5th and ultimately took the loss. Updated series prices aren’t posted as of this writing (Tuesday evening), but it’s worth mentioning that the Padres now sit at +3000 to win the World Series.
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- Dylan Cease gets the nod for Game 2 on Wednesday, and if we’re being honest, it hasn’t been a very fruitful campaign for the 29-year-old.
- In 32 starts (168.0 IP), the right-hander went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA (43rd) and a 1.33 WHIP (41st).
- Cease closed out the season on a high note last Wednesday, limiting the Brewers to one earned run on six hits and two walks over 5.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 3-1 loss, as the Padres moved to 2-3 in his last five starts.
Cubs Powered By the Longball
As for the Chicago Cubs, they finished with an identical 92-70 record as the Padres, and since the teams also split the head-to-head series (3-3), it came down to intra-divisional records (CHC: 30-18, SD: 20-28) to decide home-field advantage. This could very well be the difference maker in the wild-card round, as the Cubs went 50-31 at home, compared to the Padres’ 38-43 road record. Chicago finished the regular season by sweeping St. Louis (12-1, 7-3, 2-0), and they stayed hot by taking down San Diego (3-1) on Tuesday afternoon.
It was looking bleak for the Cubs early on Tuesday afternoon, but back-to-back home runs from Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly in the 5th put Chicago ahead 2-1. They never looked back and ultimately notched a 3-1 victory. Daniel Palencia (1.2 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief, while Brad Keller (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door in the 9th and logged the save. From here, the Cubs are down to +1000 to win the World Series.
- The Cubs have announced that relief pitcher Andrew Kittredge will be the opener for Wednesday’s potential closeout contest.
- The right-hander is currently 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and five saves across 54 outings (53.0 IP) this season.
- Kittredge has been dialed in recently, tossing 11 scoreless appearances in his last 12 outings (1.54 ERA).
- From there, Chicago’s bullpen will take over, and they ranked 11th in ERA (3.78) and fourth in WHIP (1.23) this season.
Padres vs. Cubs Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- San Diego Padres (-104) (5 units)
Game 2 of this NLWC series is sitting in the pick ‘em range (SD -104, CHC -109), and I believe that’s a fair price. I’m going to bet against the momentum of the Cubs and make a play on the Padres in this spot.
For me, there’s just too much uncertainty surrounding Chicago’s pitching staff right now. They will be leaning on their bullpen for the bulk of this game, and they’ve just been a mediocre unit this year. They’re 11th in ERA (3.78) this season. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease has been dialed in recently and San Diego’s bullpen is literally the best in baseball. In three career starts against the Cubs, Cease has allowed two earned runs, has struck out 25 and walked four in 18.2 innings. With a star-studded cast, I think we’ll see someone on the Padres come up clutch offensively to provide enough run support to secure a low-scoring victory. It’s also worth noting that San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last nine games. Give me the Friars.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Cubs
- Under 6.5 (+100) (5 units)
Unders have been extremely profitable in the wild card round, going 17-4-2 since the expansion back in 2022. This is clearly accounted for here with a total of just 6.5 runs, but I still think there’s a pretty easy case to be made for the under.
Circling back to Dylan Cease, he has been sharp recently, posting a 2.86 ERA in his final four starts (22.0 IP) of the season. The right-hander has also dominated the Cubs in the past, limiting their lineup to a slash line of .194/.269/.327 over 98 at-bats. Factor in that San Diego’s bullpen ranked first in ERA (3.06), WHIP (1.15), and opposing batting average (.209) during the regular season, and we should see their pitching staff perform well once again. These managers will be able to pick their spots wisely and lean on their top-tier bullpens on Wednesday. Let’s play the under.
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