San Diego Padres vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Picks - Friday, September 19, 2025
San Diego can move closer to the playoffs this Friday with a win in its series opener on the road against the White Sox. Find out more about this matchup with our Padres vs. White Sox prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm CT (7:40pm ET) at Rate Field, home of the Sox.
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Padres losing ground in NL West
The San Diego Padres (83-69) may have to settle for a NL Wild Card spot after pushing the Dodgers hard all season in the division race. The Padres suffered a big setback this week in dropping their road series to the Mets, losing out in Thursday's matinee decider 6-1. That result leaves them 2.5 games back from the Dodgers in the NL West standings with just nine games left on the regular season schedule. They do hold a 4.0 game advantage over the Mets in the second Wild Card spot and look set to travel to Chicago to face the Cubs in a three-game series when October comes.
Dylan Cease will be on the mound for San Diego in Friday's series opener. Cease has made 30 starts to date in his second year at PetCo Park, going 8-11 with a 4.59 ERA. The right-hander has struck out 201 batters in 157.0 innings this year and is one of only six pitchers so far to break the 200 K mark in 2025. But while Cease's K/9 rate has ticked up this season, so has his walk rate: he averages 3.78 BB/9, the third-highest of any qualified starter, compared to 3.09 in 2024. He has pitched better this month with a 2.40 ERA in three starts, including a six-inning, one-run outing to get the win last time out against the Rockies.
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Sox hit fresh slump
The White Sox (76-76) were looking good to record their first month over .500 in September, but those chances now look remote. They began the month 8-2 with series wins over the Twins, Tigers, and Rays, and followed that up with a six-game losing streak and back-to-back sweeps against the Guardians and Orioles. After briefly coming to life the Sox bats have gone freezing cold once again: the team scored two runs or fewer in five of those six games, including Wednesday's 3-1 loss to Baltimore which sealed the sweep, with a collective OPS of .420 and 61 strikeouts. The Sox remain at the bottom of the AL Central and are eliminated from the playoff picture.
Davis Martin will get the start for the White Sox against San Diego. The right-hander has gone 6-10 with a 4.01 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) this year, striking out 95 batters in 132.1 innings. Martin's last start was against the Guardians, where he took the L despite holding them to two runs over 5.0 innings.
Padres vs. White Sox pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. White Sox
- Padres (5 units)
The Padres will be motivated this Friday after a disappointing series loss, and they have plenty to take down the White Sox. Cease is finding his rhythm again and will look forward to taking on his old team. His command is also coming back, and in his last two starts, the right-hander has racked up 11 K's compared to just three walks. The White Sox are 32-46 at home this year and have lost four of their last six playing on the south side.
Take the Padres on the moneyline.
Over/under Pick for Padres vs. White Sox
- Under (5 units)
Both of these teams have been held back by their inability to score consistently in 2025 and I am backing this one to play to that trend and finish on the under. The Padres are scoring at a rate of 4.28 runs per game, ranking 19th in MLB and the lowest average of any team currently involved in the playoff race. The Sox have been even more ineffective at the plate with an average of 3.98 runs/game. They are 1-6 on the over in their last seven. San Diego is 66-82-5 on the over this season.
Take the under.
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