San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 23 2026

The San Diego Padres visit the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. San Diego enters at 87-69 overall and 38-40 on the road, while Los Angeles is 96-60 overall and an impressive 50-28 at home. The Dodgers lead the NL West by nine games over the second-place Padres, but both clubs enter this series playing excellent baseball. San Diego had won five straight completed games entering Tuesday, while Los Angeles had won four consecutive games. The Dodgers hold a 7-3 advantage through the first 10 completed meetings of the season series. Tuesday's September 22 matchup had not been completed in the supplied information and is not included in this analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

San Diego is scheduled to start Robbie Ray, who enters at 13-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 162.1 innings. He has allowed 133 hits and 22 home runs while recording 138 strikeouts against 83 walks. Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 14-8 with a 2.51 ERA and outstanding 0.87 WHIP through 179 innings. Yamamoto has surrendered only 114 hits and 19 home runs while striking out 178 and walking just 41. The Dodgers have a substantial statistical advantage in this starting pitching matchup. Yamamoto owns the lower ERA and WHIP while allowing 19 fewer hits despite throwing nearly 17 more innings, and his 178-to-41 strikeout-to-walk profile is considerably stronger.

San Diego Arrives on a Five-Game Winning Streak

San Diego enters this matchup at 87-69 and has separated itself from the rest of the NL West behind Los Angeles. The Padres are nine games behind the Dodgers but five games ahead of third-place Arizona in the supplied standings. They have also arrived in Los Angeles playing their best recent baseball, winning each of their last five completed games. San Diego swept its most recent three-game set by scores of 8-2, 7-6 and 7-3 after earning consecutive 9-3 and 9-2 road victories. The Padres scored 40 runs while allowing only 16 during that five-game winning streak.

The Padres are batting .244 with 690 runs, 1,261 hits and 179 home runs this season. They carry a .319 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. San Diego's pitching has been stronger, posting a 3.94 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP while holding opponents to a .241 batting average. The staff has issued 528 walks and recorded 1,267 strikeouts. Those numbers have helped San Diego build an 87-win season despite an offense that trails Los Angeles in every major category provided for this matchup.

San Diego's biggest strength entering Wednesday is its recent balance. The offense has scored at least seven runs in five consecutive completed games, while the pitching staff has allowed three runs or fewer in four of those five. The concern is the step up in competition and Wednesday's difficult starting pitching matchup. San Diego is also just 38-40 away from home, and the Padres now face a Los Angeles team that has been significantly better statistically over the full season and has won seven of the first 10 completed head-to-head meetings.

Los Angeles Holds the Statistical Edge

Los Angeles enters Wednesday with a 96-60 record and has put itself in firm control of the NL West. The Dodgers are 50-28 at Dodger Stadium and had won four consecutive completed games entering Tuesday's series opener. During that streak, Los Angeles recorded victories of 8-2, 8-2, 10-4 and 3-1. The Dodgers therefore scored 29 runs and allowed only nine during those four victories. Over their five most recently completed games, they are 4-1 with 31 runs scored and 15 allowed.

The Dodgers hold the stronger offensive numbers across the board. Los Angeles is batting .257 with 780 runs, 1,349 hits and 197 home runs while producing a .339 on-base percentage and .426 slugging percentage. Compared with San Diego, the Dodgers have scored 90 more runs, collected 88 more hits and hit 18 more home runs. Their pitching numbers are also better, with Los Angeles carrying a 3.62 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to a .219 batting average. The Dodgers have struck out 1,450 hitters while issuing only 471 walks.

Los Angeles has very few statistical weaknesses in this matchup. The Dodgers have the superior season-long offense, the stronger pitching staff, the better home record and the better starting pitcher on Wednesday. San Diego's current five-game winning streak deserves respect, especially considering the Padres have scored 40 runs during that stretch. However, Los Angeles has surrendered only nine runs over its four-game winning streak, and its pitching advantage becomes even more significant with the scheduled starters. The Dodgers have also repeatedly solved San Diego this season, winning seven of the first 10 completed meetings.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline

Los Angeles is the preferred side despite San Diego's excellent recent form. Both teams enter this series on winning streaks, so the deciding factors are the starting pitching matchup, home-field performance and season-long statistical profile. The Dodgers are 50-28 at home and have advantages over San Diego in batting average, runs, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. The starting pitching matchup provides another meaningful edge, with Los Angeles sending out a starter carrying a 2.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP compared with San Diego's 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Add Los Angeles' 7-3 advantage in the completed season series, and the Dodgers are the stronger side.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

There is enough offensive ability on both sides to make this total interesting, especially with San Diego scoring 40 runs across its last five completed games. However, the starting pitching matchup points toward the under at 8.5 or higher. Los Angeles' scheduled starter has allowed only 114 hits across 179 innings while carrying a 2.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, and the Dodgers have allowed just nine runs over their four-game winning streak. San Diego's pitching has also been sharp, surrendering only 16 runs over its five-game winning streak. With both clubs playing well on the mound and Los Angeles owning a 3.62 team ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the season, an 8.5 provides enough room to lean under.

Final Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.