San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026
The San Diego Padres travel to loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, to face the Miami Marlins on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. and will be televised on MLB.TV. San Diego enters with a 50-52 overall record and a 23-28 road record, while Miami is 52-51 overall and 31-20 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Marlins a 64.7% chance of winning and the Padres a 35.3% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 87 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before making your wagers on Friday’s games.
Starting Pitchers
German Marquez is scheduled to start for San Diego, while Miami’s starting pitcher is undecided. Marquez is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP through 44.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 47 hits and 11 home runs while recording 30 strikeouts and issuing 22 walks. With Miami’s starter undecided, the supplied pitching matchup places the focus on whether Marquez can improve upon his season-long ERA and WHIP while facing a Marlins offense that holds several statistical advantages over San Diego.
San Diego Searches for Greater Consistency on the Road
San Diego has alternated wins and losses throughout its last five games, going 2-3 during that stretch. The Padres most recently lost 7-6 after earning an 8-3 victory in the preceding contest. Those results followed a 3-2 loss, a commanding 19-2 win, and a 6-1 defeat. San Diego has therefore produced two strong offensive performances in its last five games but has also been held to two runs or fewer twice.
The Padres enter this matchup with a .230 batting average, a .307 on-base percentage, and a .383 slugging percentage. They have recorded 770 hits, scored 421 runs, and hit 114 home runs. San Diego holds a 10-home-run advantage over Miami, but it trails the Marlins in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, and runs scored.
San Diego’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .248 batting average. The staff has recorded 829 strikeouts and issued 367 walks. Those numbers trail Miami’s marks in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. The Padres will need their pitching to outperform those broader figures while attempting to improve upon a 23-28 road record.
Miami Returns Home Looking to End Its Losing Stretch
Miami has lost five consecutive games entering this series. The Marlins most recently suffered a 5-2 defeat after losing 5-3 and 8-5 in the previous two contests. Those results followed losses of 3-1 and 8-6. Miami scored six runs in one of those games, but it was held to three runs or fewer in three of the five defeats.
Despite those recent results, the Marlins enter this matchup with a winning overall record and a strong home mark. Miami is 52-51 for the season and has won 31 of its 51 games at loanDepot park. That home record stands in contrast to San Diego’s losing road mark and helps explain why ESPN Analytics gives Miami a substantial advantage in its matchup projection.
The Marlins own a .251 batting average, a .326 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage. Miami has accumulated 861 hits and scored 457 runs while hitting 104 home runs. The Marlins have 91 more hits and 36 more runs than the Padres, while their batting average is 21 points higher. Their on-base and slugging percentages are also better than San Diego’s corresponding figures.
Miami’s pitching staff has produced a 4.05 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while limiting opposing hitters to a .230 batting average. The Marlins have recorded 868 strikeouts and issued 351 walks. Those figures give Miami the advantage over San Diego in every supplied team pitching category. The Marlins’ combination of better offensive averages, stronger pitching numbers, and a 31-20 home record provides a solid statistical foundation despite their five-game losing streak.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction
- Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
Miami is the moneyline selection based on its home record and advantages throughout the supplied team statistics. The Marlins have the better batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, run total, and hit total. They also hold the edge in team ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, walks, and opponent batting average. San Diego has shown the ability to deliver large offensive performances, but its 23-28 road record and the supplied numbers favor Miami. ESPN Analytics’ 64.7% projection for the Marlins further supports the home team as the straight-up pick.
- Pick: Under 9.0
Take the under if the total is set at 9.0. Three of Miami’s last five games finished with nine combined runs or fewer, while three of San Diego’s last five also remained below nine combined runs. Miami owns the better overall pitching profile with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. San Diego’s scheduled starter carries a 5.24 ERA, creating some risk for the selection, but the recent scoring results and Miami’s stronger team pitching numbers make the under the preferred play at 9.0.
Preview completed prior to game play on Thursday.