San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Monday, August 17, 2026

The San Diego Padres travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York, to face the New York Mets on Monday, August 17, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. MLB.TV will provide coverage. San Diego enters at 66-58 overall and 29-32 on the road, while New York is 55-69 overall and 27-34 at home. The Padres have won four of their last five despite dropping their most recent game, while the Mets have won two straight and three of five. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before betting Monday’s MLB action, check out our free MLB picks for more predictions and analysis from around the league.

Starting Pitchers

Walker Buehler gets the start for San Diego and enters Monday at 7-5 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 114.1 innings. Buehler has allowed 116 hits while recording 100 strikeouts against 47 walks and surrendering 14 home runs. New York counters with Nolan McLean, who is 8-8 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 136.2 innings. McLean has allowed only 105 hits while striking out 159, walking 50 and giving up 15 home runs. The Mets have a considerable starting-pitching advantage based on ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and hits allowed.

Padres Have Been Finding Ways to Win

San Diego enters Monday at 66-58 overall and has won four of its last five games. The Padres' only loss during that stretch came in their most recent contest, a 6-1 road defeat. Before that setback, San Diego had put together victories by scores of 7-5, 4-3 in 11 innings, 11-2 and 3-2. The Padres have therefore demonstrated the ability to win close games while also producing a significant offensive outburst when the opportunity presents itself.

The Padres are batting .237 with a .314 on-base percentage and .387 slugging percentage. San Diego has collected 969 hits, scored 530 runs and hit 136 home runs. The pitching staff carries a 4.11 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .245. Padres pitchers have recorded 1,009 strikeouts against 430 walks.

San Diego's recent form is its strongest argument in this matchup. The Padres have been winning despite having relatively modest offensive numbers, and three of their four recent victories were decided by two runs or fewer. The concern is the starting-pitching matchup. San Diego's starter enters with an ERA approaching five and a 1.43 WHIP, leaving the Padres vulnerable if New York can generate early traffic on the bases.

Mets Have the Starting-Pitching Advantage

New York comes into Monday at 55-69 overall and has struggled at Citi Field with a 27-34 home record. The Mets have nevertheless won three of their last five games and enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak after victories of 5-4 and 4-1. Their other recent victory was an 8-5 decision, while the two losses came by scores of 6-3 and 4-0.

The Mets are batting .235 with a .307 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage. New York has scored 519 runs on 981 hits while hitting 151 home runs. Its pitching staff owns a 4.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .238 batting average. The Mets have recorded 1,115 strikeouts against 440 walks.

There is very little separating these teams in the broader statistical profile. Their team ERAs are separated by only .01, while New York holds small advantages in WHIP and opponent batting average. San Diego has scored 11 more runs, but the Mets have hit 15 more home runs. The biggest separation comes from Monday's starters, where New York owns the lower ERA and WHIP along with considerably stronger strikeout numbers.

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets ML

New York is the pick despite San Diego having the much better overall record and stronger recent form. This is primarily a starting-pitching play. The Mets' starter enters with a 3.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP compared with a 4.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for San Diego's starter. The broader pitching numbers are essentially even, and neither club has been particularly impressive in the relevant home-road split. That makes the starting matchup especially important. New York also has slightly more home-run power and enters on a two-game winning streak.

Pick: New York Mets ML

Pick: Under 8.5

The under is the stronger total play if the number is set at 8.5. San Diego has been involved in several lower-scoring games recently, with three of its last five finishing with seven combined runs or fewer. New York has also played games finishing 4-1 and 4-0 during its last five. The Mets' starting-pitching advantage should help contain a San Diego offense batting .237, while New York's .235 average does not suggest a consistently explosive attack.

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5.

Preview completed before game play on Sunday.