San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 18, 2026

The San Diego Padres visit the New York Mets on Tuesday night at Citi Field in Queens, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on August 18, with MLB.TV providing coverage. San Diego enters at 67-58 overall and 30-32 on the road, while New York is 56-69 overall and 28-34 at home. The Padres have won four of their last five games, while the Mets enter on a three-game winning streak. New York leads the season series 2-1, and ESPN's matchup predictor sees an extremely close game, giving the Mets a 50.5% chance of winning. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Robbie Ray gets the start for San Diego with a 10-7 record, 3.28 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP through 131.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 110 hits and 17 home runs while recording 113 strikeouts and 65 walks. New York counters with Zac Thornton, who enters at 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 45.1 innings. Thornton has surrendered 37 hits and four home runs while striking out 29 and walking 13. Thornton owns the better ERA and WHIP, although Ray brings a substantially larger body of work into the matchup.

San Diego Enters in Strong Form

San Diego comes into Tuesday at 67-58 overall and 30-32 away from home. The Padres have won four of their last five games, including a 5-0 road victory in their most recent contest. Their only loss during that stretch was a 6-1 defeat, while their four victories included scoring performances of 11, seven, five, and four runs.

The Padres are batting .238 this season with 535 runs, 979 hits, and 140 home runs. San Diego owns a .314 on-base percentage and .390 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has recorded a 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while opponents are batting .244.

San Diego doesn't hold a huge statistical advantage in this matchup, but the Padres have been slightly better at producing runs and reaching base. They have scored 12 more runs than New York and own the higher batting average and on-base percentage. Recent form also favors San Diego slightly, with four victories in five games.

New York Carries a Three-Game Winning Streak

New York enters Tuesday at 56-69 overall and 28-34 at Citi Field. The Mets have won three consecutive games after dropping their previous two. They allowed only eight total runs during their winning streak, taking those three games by scores of 4-1, 5-4, and 4-3.

The Mets are batting .236 with 523 runs, 991 hits, and 152 home runs. New York owns a .307 on-base percentage and .390 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .238 batting average.

New York's strongest offensive advantage is power, with 152 home runs compared with San Diego's 140. Beyond that, these teams are remarkably close statistically. Their team ERAs are separated by only 0.01, their WHIPs by 0.01, and they have identical .390 slugging percentages. That makes recent form and the starting pitching matchup particularly important Tuesday.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline

San Diego is the preferred side in what projects as one of Tuesday's tighter matchups. The Padres have the better overall record and have won four of their last five games. Their team pitching numbers are nearly identical to New York's, while San Diego has produced slightly more runs and has the better on-base percentage. The starting matchup is competitive, but the Padres' stronger season-long performance gives them a narrow edge on the moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. The team pitching statistics are almost identical, with San Diego carrying a 4.08 ERA and New York sitting at 4.09. Both scheduled starters also enter with ERAs below 3.30. New York has allowed only eight runs during its three-game winning streak, while San Diego is coming off a shutout victory. With neither offense holding an overwhelming statistical advantage, Under 8.5 is the preferred total.

Disclaimer: This preview was completed before play on Monday.