San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks for Thursday, September 18th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Thursday with a matinee matchup between the San Diego Padres (83-69) and the New York Mets (78-74), and we’ve got you covered with our Padres vs. Mets prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 1:10 ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Padres Comfortably in the Wild Card Race
The San Diego Padres have been rolling out a star-studded lineup for several seasons, but they haven’t been able to make it over the hump and get to the World Series. This year’s team is solid, sitting at 83-69 entering Thursday’s contest. This puts the Friars 1.5 games behind the first-place Dodgers in the National League West, while also occupying the middle wild card spot (+5.0 GB). The Padres are in the midst of a decent 7-4 run, and they’re coming off of a 7-4 victory over the Mets on Wednesday.
The offense was plentiful on Wednesday night, as the Padres scored seven runs on 12 hits. Manny Machado led the way, going 3-for-5 with a grand slam. Adrian Morejon (1.1 IP, 0 ER) earned the win in relief, while Robert Suarez (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door and logged his 39th save.
- Randy Vasquez gets the nod for the Padres on Thursday, and the 26-year-old has been a serviceable option in 25 outings (123.1 IP) for San Diego this year.
- The right-hander enters the series finale at 5-6, owning a 3.72 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
- Most recently, Vasquez faced the Rockies last Thursday and held them scoreless over 6.0 innings, allowing only four hits.
- He racked up nine strikeouts while picking up the win in a 2-0 victory.
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Mets Hanging on by a Thread
Meanwhile, the New York Mets have been a solid team this season, but they’re sliding down the standings as we enter the home stretch of the campaign. New York is just 2-9 in its last 11 games, which is in turn making things interesting in the N.L. wild card race. The Mets occupy the final wild card spot at 78-74, and they’re holding a narrow 1.5-game edge over the Diamondbacks. From a sports betting perspective, New York is priced at -1100 to make the postseason, while coming in at +1600 to win the World Series.
Wednesday’s 7-4 defeat to the Padres ultimately fell on David Peterson in the starter’s role, as he got lit up for six earned runs over 5.0 innings. Offensively, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Starling Marte all homered in the loss.
- Jonah Tong is gearing up to make his fourth Major League start on Thursday, and it hasn’t been an ideal beginning in the Bigs for the 22-year-old.
- Over 11.2 innings, the right-hander is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP.
- Tong pitched last Friday against the Rangers, but he lasted only 0.2 innings while getting lit up for six earned runs on four hits and three walks.
- He took his second consecutive loss in an 8-3 defeat.
Padres vs. Mets Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (+110) (5 units)
This is the MLB opener on Thursday, and I say we get the day started with a winner by backing the Padres on the moneyline.
Mostly, this is a straight-up fade of the Mets. They’ve been sliding recently, going just 2-9 SU in their last 11 games. They’ll send Jonah Tong to the bump, and this 22-year-old rookie has not looked overpowering in three career starts. He has posted an 8.49 ERA, allowing at least four runs in each of his starts! You’re asking me to lay juice with this struggling hurler on a team that has nearly slid out of the playoffs? I don’t think so. This is a no-brainer to back Randy Vasquez (3.72 ERA) and this Padres squad that’s on a solid 7-4 SU run in their last 11 games.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- Under 9.0 (-115) (5 units)
Even though the struggling Tong will toe the rubber on Thursday, 9.0 runs feels like a hefty total for this game. The Padres have actually had issues of their own offensively this season, as they’re ranked just 22nd in runs per game (4.26). On the road, they’re scoring only 4.17 runs per contest (23rd).
But the main reason why I like this under is because of San Diego’s bullpen. Vasquez typically doesn’t work too deep into games. As a matter of fact, he has posted two consecutive quality starts, but before that, he has tossed fewer than 5.0 frames on five straight occasions. This means we will be getting a healthy dose of the Padres' bullpen. They’re the best in baseball, ranking first in both relief ERA (3.10) and opposing batting average (.211). With a lofty total of 9.0 runs, I’m slamming this under.
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