San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Prediction and Picks for Wednesday, September 17th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Wednesday night with a marquee matchup between the San Diego Padres (82-69) and the New York Mets (78-73), and we’ve got you covered with our Padres vs. Mets prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:10 ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Padres Firmly in the Wild Card
The San Diego Padres have fielded a star-studded lineup in recent seasons, but they haven’t been able to get over the hump and make a run to the World Series. This year’s team is putting together a solid campaign, and they currently sit at 82-69 entering Wednesday’s game. This puts them 2.5 games out of the division (behind the Dodgers) and in control of the second wild card position (+4.0 GB). From a sports betting perspective, San Diego is +500 to win the N.L. West, while coming in at +1300 to win the World Series.
The Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and are coming off of an 8-3 series-opening loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Michael King (3.0 IP, 8 ER) got lit up and was saddled with the loss. Offensively, Jackson Merrill went 2-for-4 and clubbed a solo home run.
- Nick Pivetta gets the nod for Wednesday’s contest, and the 32-year-old has been a force for the Padres in his debut campaign with the club.
- The right-hander is currently 13-5 with a 2.73 ERA (eighth) and a 0.95 WHIP (fifth). His 180 strikeouts are the 16th-most in the Majors.
- Pivetta last pitched on Wednesday against the Reds, and he blanked them over 7.0 innings, allowing only four hits and a walk.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Padres lost 2-1.
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Mets Occupy the Final Wild Card Spot
Meanwhile, it has been an inconsistent campaign for the New York Mets. They were once competing with the Phillies for the National League East, but have dropped off significantly and are now just hoping to secure a wild card spot. Heading into Wednesday, New York is 78-73, which is good enough for the final wild card position. They have a 2.0-game cushion over the Diamondbacks for the final spot. In terms of recent form, the Mets are just 2-8 in their last 10 games.
New York picked up an 8-3 victory over San Diego on Tuesday. Sean Manaea (5.0 IP, 1 ER) earned the win in relief. It was an offensive onslaught, which saw the Mets go for 10 hits and eight runs. Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brett Baty, and Cedric Mullins all homered in the comfortable win.
- David Peterson will oppose Pivetta on Wednesday, and the 30-year-old has been a serviceable option in 28 starts (162.1 IP) this season.
- The left-hander enters the contest at 9-5 with a 3.77 ERA (27th) and a 1.32 WHIP (42nd).
- Most recently, Peterson faced the Phillies, and he gave up three earned runs on seven hits and a walk over 5.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 6-4 defeat.
Padres vs. Mets Pick
Moneyline Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- New York Mets Moneyline (-108) (4 units)
This game is priced in the pick ‘em range (SD -105, NYM -108), and I’d say that’s a pretty fair price when considering all factors. So, who wins this one? Even though the Mets haven’t been great, I’m going to take a flier on them at home.
New York has been excellent at Citi Field this year, going 47-29 SU. They’ll take on a San Diego side that’s just 35-41 SU on the road. The Mets are running into Nick Pivetta (2.73 ERA), and while he has been solid this season, New York has had his number in the past. Their current roster is slashing .318/.406/.591 against him over 88 at-bats. Ultimately, I agree that this game is a pick ‘em, but I do give a slight edge to the Mets with their home-field advantage and the head-to-head edge against Pivetta.
Over/Under Pick for Padres vs. Mets
- Under 8.0 (-115) (5 units)
Pivetta could give up a few runs in this game, but I don’t think he’s going to get steamrolled. He has simply been too dominant this year. The right-hander brings in the eighth-best ERA (2.73) and the fifth-best WHIP (0.95) in the Majors. In two September starts (13.0 IP), Pivetta owns a 1.38 ERA.
Furthermore, neither of these offenses has been firing recently. Over the last seven days, the Mets are just 24th in wOBA (.270) and 22nd in ISO (.119). The Padres are just 20th (.299) and 12th (.165) in those respective categories. Finally, it’s worth pointing out that David Peterson (3.77 ERA) has limited San Diego’s current roster to a slash line of .222/.314/.311 over 45 at-bats. All signs point to a low-scoring affair in Queens on Wednesday.
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