San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28 2026

The San Diego Padres travel to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, to face the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, August 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. San Diego enters at 72-62 overall and 31-34 on the road, while Tampa Bay is 79-54 overall and 43-23 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

San Diego is expected to start Casey Mize, who enters at 5-7 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 104.2 innings. He has allowed 88 hits while striking out 95 and walking 26, with 10 home runs surrendered. Tampa Bay counters with Shane McClanahan, who is 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 107.1 innings. He has allowed 84 hits while recording 99 strikeouts and 36 walks, with eight home runs allowed. Both starters bring solid numbers into this matchup, with Tampa Bay holding a slight ERA advantage and San Diego owning the marginally better WHIP.

Padres Lean on Pitching in Tight Games

San Diego enters Friday at 72-62 after shutting out Pittsburgh 3-0 on Wednesday. The Padres are 3-2 over their last five games, with additional wins of 8-1 and 7-5. Their two losses during that stretch came by scores of 1-0 and 3-2 in 12 innings, showing how competitive they have remained even when the offense has struggled.

The Padres are batting .238 with 569 runs, 1,047 hits and 148 home runs. They carry a .315 on-base percentage and .388 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, San Diego owns a 3.94 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, while opponents are batting .241.

The biggest strength is the ability to keep games close. San Diego has allowed three runs or fewer in four of its last five contests, and the projected starter gives the Padres another chance to stay competitive. The concern is a 31-34 road record against one of the strongest home teams in baseball.

Rays Continue to Win With Balance

Tampa Bay enters Friday at 79-54 after a 3-0 victory over Detroit on Wednesday. The Rays are 3-2 over their last five games and have allowed four runs or fewer in every contest during that stretch. Tampa Bay currently sits atop the AL East and owns an excellent 43-23 home record.

The Rays are batting .260 with 595 runs, 1,159 hits and 136 home runs. They own a .329 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay's pitching staff has also been strong, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 batting average.

Tampa Bay holds the more complete statistical profile. The Rays have the better team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Combined with their strong home record, those advantages make Tampa Bay difficult to fade in this spot.

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Tampa Bay is the side pick. The starting-pitcher matchup is close, but the Rays hold the stronger overall statistical profile and have been one of the best home teams in baseball at 43-23. Tampa Bay also enters with the better team batting average, better run prevention numbers and the superior overall record. San Diego is capable of keeping this close, but the Padres are below .500 on the road and face a Rays club that has been consistently difficult to beat at Tropicana Field. Take the Tampa Bay Rays moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.5

The total isn't available at the time of writing, but take the Under if the number is set at 8.5. Both projected starters carry ERAs below 3.50 and WHIPs close to 1.10, while each team has leaned heavily on pitching recently. San Diego has allowed three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, and Tampa Bay has allowed four or fewer in five straight. With both clubs coming off shutout victories, this matchup profiles as a lower-scoring game.

This preview was completed before game play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.