San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 17, 2025
In our Giants vs. Diamondbacks prediction, the San Francisco Giants are fourth in the NL West with a 75-75 record so far. They are having veteran right-hander Justin Verlander get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he pitched seven innings and allowed one run on four hits with four walks (one intentional) and four strikeouts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing well as they are sitting in third place in the NL West with a 76-75 record entering this game. Young right-hander Brandon Pfaadt takes the ball and is coming off a no-decision against the Minnesota Twins, where he allowed five runs on nine hits with one walk and two strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
Dial in your read with MLB picks for San Francisco Giants at the Arizona Diamondbacks before first pitch.
WRITTEN BEFORE TUESDAY’S GAME
Giants Looking to Climb Into NL Wild Card Race
The San Francisco Giants have been a struggling offensive team as they are 22nd in the sport with a .700 team OPS while averaging 4.35 runs per game. San Francisco has had no threats on the bases as they are 29th in the majors with 65 steals on 86 attempts. Third baseman Matt Chapman has been hitting at a great level as he has a .799 OPS with 21 home runs, 57 RBI, 70 runs scored, and nine steals while being caught three times.
Justin Verlander has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 28th percentile in xBA, 36th percentile in xERA, 38th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 39th percentile in chase percentage. He has a six-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, sweeper, sinker) and his fastball has been getting hit a bit as hitters have a .279 batting average and .482 slugging percentage with 10 home runs and 37 strikeouts against it. Verlander faced the Diamondbacks once this season in a loss as he allowed two runs on nine hits with one walk and five strikeouts over six innings.
Injury Report for San Francisco
- First baseman Dominic Smith: Hamstring (OUT)
- Pitcher Randy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Carson Whisenhunt: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Landen Roupp: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Erik Miller: Elbow (OUT)
- Catcher Tom Murphy: Back (OUT)
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Diamondbacks Fighting for Final NL Wild Card Spot
The Arizona Diamondbacks are doing an outstanding job at the plate as they are fifth in the bigs with a .759 team OPS while scoring 4.97 runs per game. The team has been able to draw walks as they are ninth in the sport with 505 total walks so far. Right fielder Corbin Carroll has been stepping up as he is posting a .255/.337/.542 slash line with 30 home runs, 76 RBI, 102 runs scored, and 28 steals while being caught six times.
Brandon Pfaadt is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the second percentile in xBA, fifth percentile in xERA, eighth percentile in barrel percentage, and 11th percentile in average exit velocity. He has six different pitches (fastball, sinker, sweeper, changeup, curveball, cutter) and his sinker has been his getting hit as hitters have a .312 batting average and a .471 slugging percentage with five homers and 33 strikeouts. Pfaadt faced the Giants twice already this season as he is 0-2 in 10.0 innings and gave up eight runs on 12 hits with five walks and 11 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Arizona
- First baseman Tyler Locklear: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Pavin Smith: Quadriceps (OUT)
- Left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Kevin Ginkel: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Tommy Henry: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Christian Montes De Oca: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Martinez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Cristian Mena: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Corbin Burnes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Puk: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Blake Walston: Elbow (OUT)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Spread Pick for Giants vs. Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants ML (5 units)
The previous seven starts for these pitchers show a gap as Justin Verlander is 2-2 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 40.1 innings in that span, while Brandon Pfaadt is 2-1 with a 6.31 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 35.2 innings of work. These bullpens are pitching at opposite sides of the spectrum as San Francisco is third in baseball with a 3.48 reliever ERA while Arizona is 27th with a 4.80 bullpen ERA right now. The Giants are 4-2 in the last six games against the Diamondbacks so go with the San Francisco Giants to secure the victory.
Over/Under Pick for Giants vs. Diamondbacks
- UNDER (4 units)
These pitchers are limiting the amount of runs given up when looking at the road/home splits as Justin Verlander is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a .270 opposing batting average in 53.2 innings (11 road starts) while Brandon Pfaadt is 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 82.1 innings (15 home starts) up to this point. Both teams are middle-of-the-road in terms of hitting with runners in scoring position, as the Giants are tied with the Atlanta Braves for 16th with a .746 team OPS in those chances, while the D-Backs are 14th with a .761 team OPS with runners in scoring position. The under has hit in the previous two games, so take the UNDER here.
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