San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday September 4 2026

The San Francisco Giants travel to Queens to face the New York Mets at Citi Field on Friday, September 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, with MLB.TV providing coverage. San Francisco enters at 58-82 overall and 25-46 on the road, while New York is 63-77 overall and 32-39 at home. The Mets lead the season series 3-1, and ESPN Analytics gives New York a sizable 69.1% win probability compared with 30.9% for San Francisco. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks throughout the baseball season.

Starting Pitchers

Matt Wilkinson gets the start for San Francisco and enters at 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 11.2 innings. He has allowed 11 hits while recording six strikeouts against two walks and surrendering one home run. New York counters with Nolan McLean, who is 10-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 155.2 innings. He has allowed 114 hits while striking out 172, walking 61 and giving up 15 home runs. The Mets own the much more established starting-pitching profile, with a lower ERA and a significantly larger workload.

Giants Have Been More Competitive Recently

San Francisco enters Friday at 58-82 overall and 25-46 away from home. The Giants have gone 3-2 over their last five games and most recently earned a 5-4 extra-inning victory at Pittsburgh. That stretch also includes a 7-3 road win and a 7-2 home victory, giving San Francisco a little more recent momentum than its overall record might suggest.

The Giants are batting .248 with 584 runs, 1,179 hits and 157 home runs. They own a .309 on-base percentage and .407 slugging percentage. San Francisco actually holds slight offensive advantages over New York in batting average, total runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, although the Mets have hit more home runs.

Pitching has been the bigger problem for San Francisco. The Giants own a 4.38 team ERA and 1.36 WHIP while opponents are batting .249. They have issued 516 walks and recorded 1,057 strikeouts. Those numbers trail New York's in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponent batting average, making run prevention the biggest concern for the visitors.

Mets Own the Better Pitching Profile

New York enters Friday at 63-77 overall and 32-39 at Citi Field. The Mets have gone 3-2 over their last five games and are coming off a 10-4 road win at Tampa Bay. Their recent stretch includes wins of 3-2 and 6-2 along with losses of 6-2 and 6-3, giving them a relatively balanced run of results entering this series.

The Mets are batting .236 with 577 runs, 1,111 hits and 168 home runs. They carry a .306 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage. New York trails San Francisco in most contact and run-production categories, but it owns the power edge with 11 more home runs. That gives the Mets a legitimate way to create separation even if the overall offense has been inconsistent.

New York's pitching provides the stronger foundation. The Mets own a 4.09 team ERA and 1.30 WHIP while opponents are batting .239. They have recorded 1,245 strikeouts against 494 walks. Those figures compare favorably with San Francisco's 4.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 1,057 strikeouts. Combined with the much stronger starting-pitching matchup and the 69.1% ESPN win probability, New York has the more trustworthy overall profile.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

I'm taking the New York Mets Moneyline. San Francisco has slightly better overall offensive numbers, but New York owns the stronger pitching profile, the better starting-pitching matchup and a 3-1 advantage in the season series. ESPN Analytics also gives the Mets a substantial 69.1% win probability. The Giants have played better recently, but their 25-46 road record and weaker run-prevention numbers make them difficult to trust in this spot. New York Moneyline is the side pick.

Pick: Under 8.5

The Under 8.5 is my preferred target total. New York's scheduled starter enters with a 3.06 ERA and has been the more established arm in the matchup, while both offenses have produced relatively modest season-long run totals. San Francisco has scored 584 runs and New York 577, so neither side has been an elite scoring team. If the Mets get another solid starting performance and the Giants avoid a major pitching collapse, this game has a realistic path toward staying in the seven- or eight-run range. Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5.

Final Picks: New York Mets Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.