San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 6 2026

The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets close out their three-game series Sunday afternoon at Citi Field in Queens, New York. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. San Francisco enters the matchup at 58-84 overall and 25-48 on the road, while New York is 64-77 overall and 33-39 at home. The Giants sit fourth in the NL West, 26.5 games behind Los Angeles, while the Mets are fifth in the NL East and 20 games back. New York won the series opener 10-6 and comes into Sunday having won three of its last four completed games. ESPN Analytics gives the Mets a 53.1% chance of winning compared with 46.9% for San Francisco. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your Sunday wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

San Francisco is scheduled to start Logan Webb, who enters at 8-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 149.2 innings. Webb has allowed 136 hits and 38 walks while recording 119 strikeouts and surrendering 11 home runs. New York counters with Christian Scott, who is 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 94.2 innings. Scott has allowed 80 hits and 44 walks while striking out 113 and giving up 10 home runs. New York owns the ERA advantage, while San Francisco has the better WHIP and has issued fewer walks over a substantially larger workload.

San Francisco Needs More From Its Pitching Staff

San Francisco enters Sunday at 58-84 overall and has struggled considerably on the road with a 25-48 record away from home. The Giants have dropped three of their last five completed games and each of their last two, including Friday's 10-6 loss at Citi Field. Their recent stretch has been volatile, with a 13-12 loss at Pittsburgh, a 7-3 victory at Atlanta and a 5-4 extra-inning win also appearing among their last five. San Francisco has shown some offensive life, but consistency remains a major problem.

The Giants are batting .248 with 1,193 hits, 592 runs and 158 home runs while posting a .309 on-base percentage and .406 slugging percentage. San Francisco owns advantages over New York in batting average, total hits, runs and slugging percentage. The Mets have hit 15 more home runs, but the Giants have generated slightly more total offense across several categories. That makes San Francisco capable of staying competitive if the pitching can hold up.

Pitching has been the larger weakness for the Giants. San Francisco enters with a 4.40 team ERA and 1.36 WHIP while opponents are batting .249. Those numbers are worse than New York's 4.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .239 opponent batting average. Sunday's starter has a strong 1.16 WHIP and has limited home runs, giving the Giants a chance to keep the game under control early, but the overall staff has not been as reliable as New York's.

New York Has the Better Recent Form

New York enters Sunday at 64-77 overall and 33-39 at Citi Field. The Mets have won three of their last five completed games, including Friday's 10-6 victory over San Francisco and a 10-4 road win over Tampa Bay. They also earned a 3-2 victory during that same stretch. While the overall season has been disappointing, New York has played better baseball recently and enters this matchup with more momentum than San Francisco.

The Mets are batting .236 with 1,120 hits, 587 runs and 173 home runs while carrying a .306 on-base percentage and .391 slugging percentage. Their batting average and overall hit production trail the Giants, but New York owns the stronger power total with 173 home runs. The Mets are only five runs behind San Francisco despite the lower batting average, which shows that their power has helped compensate for weaker overall contact numbers.

New York also owns the better team pitching profile. The Mets have a 4.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while holding opponents to a .239 batting average. Those marks are all better than San Francisco's corresponding numbers. The Mets have also recorded 1,256 strikeouts compared with 1,067 for the Giants, giving New York another edge in run prevention. Combined with better recent form and home-field advantage, the Mets carry the stronger full-game profile.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Mets Moneyline

New York is the preferred side for Sunday's matchup. The Mets have the better team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average, while also entering with stronger recent form. New York has won three of its last four completed games and opened this series with a 10-6 victory. San Francisco does own some offensive advantages and has the better starting-pitcher WHIP, but the Giants are just 25-48 on the road. With ESPN Analytics also giving New York a slight edge, the Mets moneyline is the stronger play at a reasonable price.

Pick: Over 8.5

Over 8.5 is the preferred target number. San Francisco has played several high-scoring games recently, including totals of 16 and 25 runs in two of its last four completed contests, while Friday's series opener produced 16 runs. The Giants' staff owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, giving New York opportunities to generate offense again. The Mets' 4.10 ERA is better but still vulnerable enough for San Francisco to contribute. With both teams showing enough recent offensive production and neither staff dominating over the full season, the Over is the stronger lean at 8.5.

Final Picks: New York Mets Moneyline and Over 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Saturday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.