Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 7, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with an interleague matchup between the Seattle Mariners (74-68) and the Atlanta Braves (64-78), and we’ve got you covered with our Mariners vs. Braves prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 12:05 ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Mariners Sliding Out of Playoffs
The Seattle Mariners have been on the cusp of being a serious contender in the American League, but they just haven’t been able to get over the hump. The organization decided to go all-in at the trade deadline this year, adding sluggers 1B Josh Naylor and 3B Eugenio Suarez, but Seattle is barely hanging on in the playoff race. The Mariners (74-68) are 3.5 games behind the first-place Astros in the A.L. West, while currently possessing the final wild card spot (+1.0 GB). Seattle is in the midst of a 2-6 run, where they were swept by Tampa Bay (10-2, 6-5, 9-4) and split the opening games of this series with Atlanta (L: 4-1, W: 10-2).
The offense powered the way in Saturday’s 10-2 victory. Julio Rodriguez homered twice, while Cal Raleigh and the above-mentioned Naylor and Suarez went yard as well. Bryce Miller (5.1 IP, 2 ER) was sharp in his start, but Gabe Speier (0.2 IP, 0 ER) earned the win in relief.
- Luis Castillo gets the nod for Sunday’s finale, and the 32-year-old hurler has been serviceable in 2025.
- Across 155.1 innings, the right-hander is 8-8 with a 3.94 ERA (30th) and a 1.29 WHIP (35th).
- Castillo got roughed up last time out against the Rays, conceding five earned runs on six hits and a walk over 4.0 innings.
- He took the loss in the 10-2 defeat.
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Braves Struggling in 2025
Meanwhile, it has been a disastrous campaign for the Atlanta Braves. They ran into early-season injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and basically their whole starting rotation, as well as losing OF Jurickson Profar (PEDs) due to suspension. Maybe you can survive one or two of those negative events, but when they start to pile up you can see why Atlanta sits at just 64-77 overall. In terms of recent form, the Braves are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and they’re coming off of a 10-2 loss to the Mariners on Saturday.
Saturday’s 10-2 loss ultimately fell on the bullpen, and more specifically, it was Daysbel Hernandez (0.2 IP, 3 ER) in relief. Offense was tough to come by, as Atlanta managed only six hits. Matt Olson homered in a 2-for-4 day at the dish.
- Spencer Strider will oppose Castillo on Sunday, and he hasn’t been great in 19 outings (101.1 IP) this season.
- The right-hander comes into the finale at 5-12 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
- Strider last pitched on Monday against the Cubs, where he gave up three earned runs on five hits and three walks over 5.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in the 7-6 defeat, as the Braves moved to 0-5 in his last five starts.
Mariners vs. Braves Pick
Moneyline Pick for Mariners vs. Braves
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-124) (5 units)
The Mariners have been the better team overall this season, but as the Braves continue to get healthy and look more like the star-studded lineup that we’ve become accustomed to, I’ll gladly back them at home as slim favorites.
Seattle hasn’t been great recently, going just 2-6 SU in their last eight games. Additionally, Luis Castillo has been horrendous over his last four starts (17.0 IP), posting an insane 10.06 ERA! His H/9 rate is 15.9 while his WHIP is 2.18 over the 17.0-inning sample size. Atlanta has also had this number in the past, which I’ll dive into below since I expect their offense to propel this final score over the total, as well as help win the game.
Over/Under Pick for Mariners vs. Braves
- Over 9.0 (+100) (5 units)
We should see plenty of scoring in this series finale. I’m playing the over 9.0 runs with an even-money payout. Picking it back up with Castillo, he has struggled against the Braves in the past. Their current roster is slashing .260/.315/.390 against him over 100 at-bats.
On the flip side, Spencer Strider has also been in poor form recently. He brings in a 4.97 ERA this season, and he has conceded 3+ runs in four of his last five outings. The Mariners’ current roster is slashing .300/.364/.750 against him over 20 at-bats. Factor in that both of these bullpens rank outside of the top 10 in relief ERA, and I anticipate the scoring to be plentiful in this one. Give me the over.
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