Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Seattle Mariners visit the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The game is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. The game-time temperature is expected to be 82 degrees. Seattle enters at 52-54 overall with a 22-31 road record, while Los Angeles stands at 67-39 overall and 31-19 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Dodgers a 66.4% chance of winning, compared with 33.6% for the Mariners. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers at Dodger Stadium

Luis Castillo is the probable starter for Seattle and enters with a 3-9 record, 4.85 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. The right-hander has completed 94.2 innings, allowing 96 hits, 30 walks, and 14 home runs while recording 84 strikeouts. Los Angeles is expected to counter with Eric Lauer, who owns a 5-5 record with a 4.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The left-hander has worked 82.0 innings, surrendering 75 hits, 28 walks, and 20 home runs while collecting 52 strikeouts. The Dodgers’ probable starter holds modest advantages in record, ERA, and WHIP, while Seattle’s starter has pitched more innings and recorded 32 more strikeouts. Los Angeles’ starter has allowed six more home runs despite handling the smaller workload.

Seattle Searches for Momentum After a Difficult Stretch

The Mariners enter Tuesday’s matchup two games below .500 at 52-54 and have struggled on the road, posting a 22-31 record away from home. Seattle has lost four of its last five games, although it ended that stretch with a 6-4 road victory over Texas. The Mariners dropped the previous two games in that series by scores of 7-1 and 5-4. Seattle also suffered consecutive home losses against Cincinnati, falling 5-3 and 4-2.

Seattle is batting .231 with 426 runs, 808 hits, and 123 home runs. The Mariners have produced a .310 on-base percentage and a .377 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .239 batting average. Seattle has issued 263 walks and recorded 903 strikeouts. The Mariners have gone 30-37 in night games.

The Mariners’ most encouraging attribute is their overall pitching profile. Seattle’s team ERA is only slightly higher than Los Angeles’ mark, while its WHIP remains a respectable 1.18. The Mariners have also issued 59 fewer walks than the Dodgers. However, Seattle trails Los Angeles across every supplied offensive category and has scored three runs or fewer in four of its last five games. Its probable starter’s 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP add to the challenge against the stronger home team.

Los Angeles Returns Home with the Statistical Advantage

The Dodgers enter the matchup at 67-39 overall and have performed well at Dodger Stadium, winning 31 of their 50 home games. Los Angeles has won four of its last five contests despite suffering an 8-3 road loss to New York in its latest appearance. The Dodgers won the first two listed games of that series by scores of 4-3 and 4-2. They also earned consecutive road victories over Philadelphia, winning 9-5 and 2-1.

Los Angeles is batting .260 with 546 runs, 928 hits, and 136 home runs. The Dodgers have compiled a .340 on-base percentage and a .431 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while limiting opposing hitters to a .215 batting average. Los Angeles has issued 322 walks and registered 950 strikeouts. The Dodgers have produced an excellent 52-28 record in night games.

The Dodgers hold clear advantages on both sides of the matchup. Los Angeles leads Seattle by 29 points in batting average, 120 runs, 120 hits, and 13 home runs. The Dodgers also own a 30-point advantage in on-base percentage and a 54-point edge in slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has the lower ERA and WHIP while holding opponents to an average 24 points lower than Seattle. Los Angeles has also won four of five and owns a considerably stronger home record than Seattle’s road mark.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Prediction

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick

• Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline

Los Angeles is the preferred side based on its superior overall record, winning home mark, recent form, and overwhelming offensive advantages. The Dodgers are 15 games ahead of Seattle in the overall standings and have gone 31-19 at home, while the Mariners are only 22-31 on the road. Los Angeles also leads Seattle in every supplied offensive category and holds modest advantages in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and opponent batting average. The starting-pitching matchup is relatively close, but the Dodgers’ broader statistical profile and 66.4% matchup-predictor probability support the home team.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Total Pick

• Pick: Over

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. I would play the over at that number because both probable starters enter with ERAs above 4.80. Los Angeles’ probable starter has surrendered 20 home runs in 82.0 innings, while Seattle’s probable starter has allowed 14 across 94.2 innings. Three of the Dodgers’ last five games have produced at least nine combined runs, while Seattle’s latest contest finished with 10. Los Angeles has scored at least four runs in four consecutive games, and its considerable advantages in batting average, runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage create the strongest support for the over.

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6 – Seattle Mariners 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.