Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 3, 2025
In our Mariners vs. Rays prediction, the Seattle Mariners are second in the AL West with a 73-65 record so far. They are having right-hander George Kirby get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians, where he pitched seven innings and allowed a pair of runs on six hits with one hit by pitch, zero walks, and six strikeouts.
The Tampa Bay Rays are sitting in fourth place in the AL East with a 68-69 record entering this game. Righty Adrian Houser will be taking the ball and is coming off a no-decision against the Washington Nationals, where he pitched four innings and allowed one run on six hits with three walks and four strikeouts.
When it comes to baseball picks, our MLB Predictions are stellar.
Mariners Fighting for AL West Lead
The Seattle Mariners are hitting at a good level as the team is 12th in the sport with a .729 team OPS while averaging 4.56 runs per game. They have been doing an amazing job in terms of hitting homers, as they are in third place with 196 combined home runs. Catcher Cal Raleigh has been extremely well at the plate as he has a .933 OPS with 50 home runs, 107 RBI, 88 runs scored, and 14 steals while being caught three times.
George Kirby is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 83rd percentile in walk percentage, 76th percentile in chase percentage, 64th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 60th percentile in whiff percentage. He has six different pitches (fastball, slider, sinker, knuckle curve, splitter, changeup) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .183 batting average and a .303 slugging percentage with four home runs and 35 strikeouts against it. Kirby faced the Rays once last season in a victory as he allowed one run on four hits with zero walks and seven strikeouts in six innings.
Injury Report for Seattle
- Pitcher Trent Thornton: Achilles (OUT)
- Pitcher Logan Evans: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Gregory Santos: Knee (OUT)
- Second baseman Ryan Bliss: Biceps (OUT)
Rays Looking to Stay in the Wild Card Picture
The Tampa Bay Rays are a middling team at the plate as they are 14th in the bigs with a .716 team OPS while scoring 4.53 runs per game. The team has been aggressive on the bases as they are best in the majors with 173 stolen bases while being caught 44 times. Third baseman Junior Caminero has a .258/.300/.530 slash line with 39 home runs, 96 RBI, 80 runs scored, and seven steals on eight tries.
Adrian Houser has been pitching poorly according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the seventh percentile in whiff percentage, ninth percentile in hard hit percentage, 13th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 18th percentile in xBA. He has a five-pitch arsenal (sinker, changeup, curveball, slider, fastball) and his slider has been his worst pitch as hitters have a .340 batting average and a .489 slugging percentage against it with one home run and seven strikeouts thus far. Houser faced the Mariners twice between the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays as he is 1-1 in 11.0 innings and allowed four runs on eight hits with three hit by pitches, six walks, and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Tampa Bay
- Right fielder Stuart Fairchild: Oblique (OUT)
- Shortstop Taylor Walls: Groin (OUT)
- Center fielder Jonny DeLuca: Hamstring (OUT)
- First baseman Jonathan Aranda: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Hunter Bigge: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Manuel Rodriguez: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Shane McClanahan: Triceps (OUT)
- Pitcher Alex Faedo: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Nate Lavender: Elbow (OUT)
Full Game Pick
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Seattle Mariners ML (4 units)
When diving into the previous seven starts, there is a sizable gap as George Kirby is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 42.2 innings while Adrian Houser is 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 37.0 innings during that stretch. There is also a slight divide between these offenses in the last 30 days as Seattle is scoring 4.72 runs in their previous 25 games, while Tampa Bay is averaging 4.67 runs in their last 24 games. The Mariners won six of the previous eight games against the Rays so take the Seattle Mariners to win here.
UNDER (5 units)
Since the All-Star break, these teams are two of the worst offensive teams in the sport as Seattle is 25th in the majors with a .692 team OPS in their 42 games since the Midsummer Classic, while Tampa Bay is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for 23rd with a .694 team OPS in their 40 games in the second half of the season. Both bullpens have also been pitching well as the Mariners are 11th with a 3.87 reliever ERA while the Rays are eighth with a 3.68 bullpen ERA right now. All in all, go with the UNDER as the better bet to make for this game.
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