Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays, Game 7, Prediction and Picks for Monday, October 20th, 2025
It’s the two greatest words in sports: Game 7. The Toronto Blue Jays (3-3) have battled back from an early 0-2 ALCS deficit against the Seattle Mariners, forcing a do-or-die Game 7 on Monday night. We’ve got you covered with our Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction for Game 7. Below, I’ll recap the series, touch on the betting odds, and dive into the starting pitching matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Mariners Drop Game 6 in Toronto
The Seattle Mariners are no strangers to playing in high-leverage games. If you turn the clock back just 10 days, you’ll remember that the M’s outlasted the Tigers in a 15-inning barnburner that they won 3-2 to advance to the ALCS. It looked like it was full steam ahead for the Mariners, as they stole two road games against the Blue Jays (3-1, 10-3) to open this ALCS matchup. However, they’ve squandered the lead and are now faced with a win-or-go-home Game 7 on Monday. From here, Seattle is priced at +105 to advance (aka the moneyline price for Game 7), while sitting at +400 to win the World Series.
Sunday’s 6-2 Game 6 loss ultimately fell on Logan Gilbert in the starter’s role. The right-hander threw 4.0 innings and gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a walk. Offense was tough to come by, and Josh Naylor finally got the Mariners on the board with a solo shot in the 6th. Eugenio Suarez added an RBI-single later in the same inning.
- George Kirby heads to the bump on Monday night, and this will be the 27-year-old’s fourth outing of the postseason.
- The right-hander pitched in Game 3 in Seattle and got lit up for eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks over 4.0 innings.
- He took the loss in the 13-4 defeat, bringing his postseason ERA and WHIP to 7.07 and 1.43, respectively.
- As for the regular campaign, Kirby wasn’t overpowering, going 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
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Blue Jays Force a Seventh Game
As for the Toronto Blue Jays, they cruised past the Yankees in four games in the ALDS, but then lost some momentum with back-to-back home losses (3-1, 10-3) to start this series with the Mariners. The Jays went on to win three of the next four games, including emerging victorious in two road contests in Seattle. They’ve extended the series to a seventh game, and things are looking promising considering they have their home crowd behind them and a former Cy Young Award winner in Shane Bieber taking the ball. From a sports betting perspective, Toronto is a -120 favorite to win on Monday, and they’re sitting at +400 to win the World Series.
The 6-2 Game 6 victory saw 22-year-old Trey Yesavage rise up to the occasion and turn in an excellent start. He picked up the win after throwing 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs. Offensively, Addison Barger homered and drove in three total runs, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored.
- Shane Bieber opposed Kirby in Game 3, and he turned in a 6.0-inning quality start, limiting the Mariners to two earned runs on four hits and a walk.
- The right-hander earned the win in the 13-4 rout, moving to 1-0 in the playoffs with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Bieber is coming off of a regular season where he made seven starts (40.1 IP), going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.
- He owns a career playoff ERA of 4.73, which spans five starts (26.2 IP) across three different years.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-120) (5 units)
I have to ride with the Blue Jays here for a number of reasons. Momentum is a real thing, and Toronto has swiped it back, winning Game 6, as well as three of the last four games in the series. The Jays are also at home, where they went an impressive 54-27 SU during the regular campaign.
Aside from some of the intangibles, the Blue Jays are set up from a statistical angle as well. They’ll take on George Kirby, and Toronto’s current roster is slashing .310/.329/.535 against him over 71 at-bats. The big guns of George Springer (4-for-11) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5-for-12) are a combined 9-for-23 (.391) against Kirby. Even though Kirby will have a short leash, if these guys get to him early, it’ll provide a nice cushion for a solid Toronto pitching staff. I’m riding with the Blue Jays at home.
Over/Under Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Under 7.5 (-112) (5 units)
Even though we just saw this same pitching matchup between George Kirby and Shane Bieber yield a 13-4 final score, I have to think things tighten up in Game 7. It’s going to be an “all hands on deck” approach in this one, meaning if a pitcher even shows a sign of weakness, then it’ll be onto the next guy.
Diving deeper into Bieber, he has owned the Mariners throughout his career. In 131 head-to-head at-bats, their current roster is slashing just .221/.255/.290 against him. These are also two bullpens with elite high-leverage arms, and with a trip to the World Series on the line, I have to think all of the best bullpen arms will be getting work in this game. I’m taking the under.
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