Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Picks for Sunday, October 12th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Championship Series is upon us in the MLB playoffs, and the ALCS pits the Seattle Mariners (0-0) against the Toronto Blue Jays (0-0) for a seven-game series. We’ve got you covered with our Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction for Game 1. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s path to the ALCS and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 8:03 ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Mariners Win a 15-Inning Barnburner, Advance
Manager Dan Wilson and his Seattle Mariners won the American League West this season with a record of 90-72, and that netted them the No. 2 seed in the A.L. heading into the playoffs. This meant that the M’s would bypass the Wild Card Round and go straight to the Divisional Series.
It took all five games (L: 3-2, W: 3-2, W: 8-4, L: 9-3, W: 3-2), and two Tarik Skubal starts for Seattle to get past a feisty Detroit club, but they did it. Friday’s 15-inning barnburner saw Luis Castillo (1.1 IP, 0 ER) pick up the win in relief, while Jorge Polanco drove in the game-winning run with an RBI single. This is the first time that Seattle is in the ALCS since 2001. From here, the Mariners are priced at +122 to advance to the World Series, while sitting at +350 to win the championship.
- Bryce Miller will toe the rubber for the Mariners on Sunday night, and the 27-year-old starter was not overpowering in 18 starts (90.1 IP) this season.
- The right-hander went just 4-6, posting a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Miller last pitched on Wednesday (three days' rest) against the Tigers, and he lasted 4.1 innings and gave up two earned runs on four hits.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 9-3 loss for the M’s.
Blue Jays Cruise Past Yankees Into ALCS
As for the Toronto Blue Jays, the expectations really weren’t too high entering the season, especially considering the organization finished last in the American League East at 74-88 in 2024. They went from worst-to-first in the division, also notching the top seed in the A.L. with a record of 94-68. This is their first ALCS appearance since 2016. From this point, the Jays are priced as -142 favorites to punch their ticket to the World Series, and they’re +340 to bring home their first title since 1993.
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The Jays earned a first-round bye in the postseason, so they picked it back up with a five-game series against the Yankees in the Divisional Series. Really, it was a demolition of the Bronx Bombers, as the Blue Jays out-scored the divisional foe 34-19 and won the series in four games (W: 10-1, W: 13-7, L: 9-6, W: 5-2). Toronto’s bullpen looked sharp in the closeout game, which is reassuring since the relief staff was a mediocre 16th in ERA (3.98) and 14th in WHIP (1.28) during the regular campaign.
- Kevin Gausman will oppose Miller in the opener, and the 34-year-old starter put together another fabulous season with Toronto.
- The right-hander made all 32 starts (193.0 IP), going 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA (22nd) and a 1.06 WHIP (11th). His 189 strikeouts were the 17th-most in the Majors.
- Gausman looked excellent in his lone 2025 postseason outing, tossing 5.2 innings against the Yankees and limiting them to one earned run on four hits and two walks.
- He picked up the win in a 10-1 rout, as the Jays improved to 4-2 in his last six starts.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-160) (5 units)
I really have no interest in making the case for the Mariners on Sunday night. It was an “all hands on deck” approach in Friday’s 15-inning win over the Tigers, meaning the M’s burned through all of their high-leverage arms in the victory. Seattle also struggled on the road this season, going 39-42 SU away from home. Toronto was lights out at home, posting a 54-27 SU mark. They won both of their home games in the ALDS round against the Yankees (10-1, 13-7).
Speaking of the ALDS round, Kevin Gausman looked very good in his start, throwing 5.1 one-run innings against the Yankees. The right-hander has found decent success against the Mariners in the past, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .245/.289/.399 over 143 at-bats. With Toronto’s offense firing on all cylinders as well, I expect to see them cruise in the opener. I’ll lay the -160 vig on the moneyline, and I'm also going to sprinkle a few bucks on Toronto -1.5 at +135. I love the Jays in Game 1.
Over/Under Pick for Mariners vs. Blue Jays
- Over 7.5 (-120) (5 units)
I’m playing the over in this game, mainly because of how dominant Toronto’s offense has looked. This group hammered New York in the ALDS, averaging 8.5 runs per game during the four-game sample size. Additionally, the Jays are running into Bryce Miller, and the right-hander hasn’t been good this season. He posted a 5.68 ERA during the regular campaign. Toronto’s current roster is slashing .333/.395/.538 against him in 39 at-bats. With the way they’re swinging the bats, there’s a realistic chance that the Jays clear this number by themselves.
On the flip side, the Mariners may be able to contribute a couple of runs as well. They ranked third in home runs (238) during the regular season, and they’re averaging 1.2 bombs per game this postseason. Seattle has some dangerous hitters at the top of the lineup, and they’re always a threat to put up some offense. Give me the over.
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