St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC In our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, the St. Louis Cardinals are fourth in the NL Central with a 78-81 record so far. They are having veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he pitched five innings and allowed two runs on seven hits with a pair of walks and three strikeouts.
The Chicago Cubs are trying to lock up the top NL Wild Card spot as they are sitting in second place in the NL Central with an 89-70 record entering this game. Right-hander Colin Rea took the ball and lost last time out against the Cincinnati Reds, where he pitched seven innings and gave up one run on four hits with zero walks and 11 strikeouts.
From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals vs. the Chicago Cubs highlight the edge.
Cardinals Looking to Play Spoiler
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a poor job at the plate as they are tied with the San Francisco Giants for 23th in the bigs with a .696 team OPS while scoring 4.31 runs per game. The team has not been able to hit for power as their 146 total home runs is 29th in baseball. First baseman Alec Burleson has been swinging the bat well as he is posting a .293/.345/.464 slash line with 18 home runs, 69 RBI, 54 runs scored, and five steals while being caught once.
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Miles Mikolas is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the first percentile in whiff percentage, third percentile in barrel percentage, fourth percentile in strikeout percentage, and ninth percentile in xBA. He has seven different pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, changeup, sweeper, slow curve) and his sweeper has been getting hit as hitters have a .391 batting average and .522 slugging percentage with zero home runs and four strikeouts. Mikolas faced the Cubs once this season in a losing effort as he pitched six innings and gave up eight runs (six homers) on 10 hits with zero walks and four strikeouts.
Injury Report for St. Louis
- First baseman Willson Contreras: Shoulder (OUT)
- Shortstop Masyn Winn: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Zack Thompson: Lat (OUT)
Cubs Looking to End the Regular Season Strong
The Chicago Cubs have been a solid offensive team as they are eighth in the sport with a .747 team OPS while averaging 4.86 runs per game. Texas has been aggressive on the bases as they are third with 159 stolen bases while being caught 35 times. First baseman Michael Busch has been hitting at a strong level as he has a .832 OPS with 31 home runs, 84 RBI, 74 runs scored, and four steals without being caught.
Colin Rea has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 13th percentile in xBA, 14th percentile in barrel percentage, 17th percentile in xERA, and 21st percentile in strikeout percentage. He has a seven-pitch arsenal (fastball, splitter, slider, sinker, curveball, sweeper, cutter) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .194 batting average and .339 slugging percentage with two home runs and 15 strikeouts against it. Rea faced the Cardinals twice this season and is 2-0 in 12.2 innings and giving up two runs on five hits with four walks and 10 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Chicago
- Pitcher Cade Horton: Back (Questionable)
- Right fielder Owen Caissie: Concussion (OUT)
- Right fielder Kyle Tucker: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Braiser: Groin (OUT)
- Catcher Miguel Amaya: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Steele: Elbow (OUT)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Pick
Spread Pick for Cardinals vs. Cubs
- Chicago Cubs ML (5 units)
The Chicago Cubs have something to play for in this game while the St. Louis Cardinals do not. The ability to hit with runners in scoring position shows a significant gap as the Cardinals are 24th in the bigs with a .708 team OPS with runners in scoring position while the Cubs are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for fifth place with a .780 team OPS in those opportunities. The road/home splits for these pitchers show a significant difference as Miles Mikolas is 4-6 with a 6.33 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 69.2 innings (15 road starts) while Colin Rea is 5-3 with a 4.09 ERA and a .256 batting average against in 92.1 innings (18 home games, 16 starts) entering this start. The Cubs are 5-3 in their previous eight games against the Cardinals this season so go with the Chicago Cubs to be victorious.
Over/Under Pick for Cardinals vs. Cubs
- OVER (4 units)
When looking at the last seven pitching appearances for these staters, they are both struggling a bit as Miles Mikolas is 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 33.2 innings (seven starts) while Colin Rea is 1-2 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 37.0 innings (six starts) in that stretch. During the last 30 days, these teams are doing well with their team batting average of balls in play as the Cards are 11th with a .297 team BABIP while the Cubs are 16th with a .289 team BABIP. All in all, go with the OVER here.
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