St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Saturday July 4 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs continue their rivalry on Saturday, July 4, with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 PM at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game will be broadcast on MLB.TV/FOX as the Cardinals bring a 45-39 record into the contest while the Cubs sit atop the matchup at 49-38. According to ESPN Analytics, Chicago has a 56.1% chance to win compared to 43.9% for St. Louis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for even more analysis and daily predictions.
Starting Pitchers Ready for the Spotlight
Saturday's pitching matchup features Kyle Leahy getting the start for St. Louis against Shota Imanaga for Chicago. Leahy enters with a 6-4 record, a 4.09 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP over 81.1 innings. He has allowed 89 hits while striking out 67 batters, walking 31, and surrendering nine home runs. Imanaga has gone 5-6 this season with a 4.30 ERA and an impressive 1.08 WHIP across 98.1 innings. He has given up 83 hits while recording 92 strikeouts, issuing 23 walks, and allowing 20 home runs.
St. Louis Aims to Stay in the Division Race
The Cardinals arrive with a solid 45-39 overall record and have played well on the road, posting a 22-18 mark away from home. They have won three of their last five games, recently defeating Atlanta 11-5 after splitting the previous two contests against the Braves. Before that series, St. Louis earned a 2-1 victory over Miami but also dropped a 5-1 decision to the Marlins. The recent results show a club capable of responding after setbacks.
Offensively, St. Louis has produced a .246 team batting average while scoring 379 runs and collecting 693 hits. The Cardinals have hit 94 home runs with a .323 on-base percentage and a .393 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has matched the offense by posting a 4.23 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .254 batting average. The club has recorded 629 strikeouts with 283 walks and owns a 30-21 record in night games.
One of the Cardinals' strengths has been their balanced approach. Their ERA matches Chicago's, and they have been successful away from home throughout the season. While the offense has not produced as many runs as the Cubs, the pitching staff has helped keep St. Louis competitive on a nightly basis.
Chicago Carries Strong Momentum into Saturday
The Cubs enter Saturday with a 49-38 overall record and have been particularly impressive at Wrigley Field, where they have compiled a 26-17 home record. They also bring outstanding momentum into this matchup after winning each of their last five games. Chicago recently completed a three-game sweep of San Diego with victories of 23-3, 9-7, and 3-2 after previously defeating Milwaukee 4-3 in 10 innings and 8-2.
Chicago has put together strong offensive production this season, batting .245 while collecting 730 hits and scoring 448 runs. The Cubs have launched 112 home runs, posted a .340 on-base percentage, and own a .414 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been equally effective, carrying a 4.23 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .242 batting average. The staff has totaled 680 strikeouts against 268 walks, and Chicago is also 30-21 in night games.
The Cubs' biggest advantage has been their ability to combine consistent offense with efficient pitching. Their .340 on-base percentage is stronger than St. Louis, and they have scored considerably more runs while also allowing opponents to hit just .242. That balance has helped fuel their current five-game winning streak.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago enters this matchup with the better overall record, a strong home record, and the momentum of five consecutive victories. The Cubs have also produced more runs, more home runs, and a higher on-base percentage than the Cardinals while matching them with a 4.23 team ERA. With those advantages and the favorable matchup predictor, I like Chicago to continue its winning run.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Total Pick
- Pick: Take the over if the total is set at 8.5
I would lean toward the over if the total is set at 8.5. Both teams have identical 4.23 ERAs, and Chicago has been producing offense at an impressive rate during its recent winning streak. St. Louis has also shown it can score in bunches, including its recent 11-run performance, making this a matchup that could climb above the posted number.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.