St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Sunday, August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET, with ABC and MLB.TV providing television coverage. St. Louis enters the matchup at 61-61 overall and 29-27 on the road, while Chicago is 72-51 overall and 36-24 at home. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Before making your selections for Sunday’s matchup, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Hunter Dobbins is scheduled to start for St. Louis and enters at 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 45.0 innings. He has allowed 42 hits and six home runs while recording 42 strikeouts against 17 walks. Chicago counters with Edward Cabrera, who is 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through 72.1 innings. He has surrendered 72 hits and 14 home runs while recording 65 strikeouts against 29 walks. St. Louis owns the statistical advantage in the scheduled starting matchup, particularly with the lower ERA and WHIP.

St. Louis Needs Its Pitching to Set the Tone

St. Louis enters Sunday at 61-61 overall and has been slightly better on the road, where it owns a 29-27 record. The Cardinals have gone 3-2 over their last five completed games despite Friday's 3-0 loss at Chicago. Their three recent victories came by scores of 7-1 and 2-0 against Philadelphia and 7-4 against Colorado, while their other defeat was a narrow 6-5 decision.

The Cardinals are batting .240 this season with a .315 on-base percentage and .377 slugging percentage. St. Louis has scored 529 runs on 977 hits while hitting 122 home runs. Its pitching staff carries a 4.07 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .252. The Cardinals have recorded 929 strikeouts while issuing 415 walks.

St. Louis' best opportunity comes from the scheduled starting matchup and its recent ability to limit opponents. The Cardinals have held three of their last five opponents to one run or fewer. The larger concern is an offense that trails Chicago substantially in runs, home runs, OBP, and slugging percentage. St. Louis will likely need another strong pitching performance to keep this game within reach.

Chicago's Offense Creates a Clear Advantage

Chicago enters the matchup at 72-51 overall and owns a strong 36-24 record at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have won four of their last five completed games, including Friday's 3-0 victory over St. Louis. Their other recent victories came by scores of 12-6, 8-6, and 10-2, while their only loss during that stretch was a 7-0 defeat.

The Cubs are batting .249 with a .338 on-base percentage and .418 slugging percentage. Chicago has scored 637 runs on 1,051 hits while producing 156 home runs. Its pitching staff owns a 4.07 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .244 batting average. Chicago has recorded 943 strikeouts against 360 walks.

Chicago's biggest advantage is its offensive production. The Cubs have scored 108 more runs than St. Louis and have hit 34 more home runs while holding substantial advantages in OBP and slugging percentage. The pitching staffs have identical 4.07 ERAs, but Chicago also owns the better WHIP and opponent batting average. The primary concern is Sunday's scheduled starting matchup, where St. Louis holds the statistical edge.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the preferred side despite St. Louis having the better scheduled starting numbers. The Cubs hold significant advantages in overall record, home performance, offensive production, and several team pitching categories. Chicago is also 4-1 across its last five completed games and has scored at least eight runs in three of those contests. St. Louis can make this competitive with its starting-pitching advantage, but Chicago's deeper season-long statistical profile earns the moneyline selection.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Chicago has scored 637 runs this season with 156 home runs and a .418 slugging percentage, while its scheduled starter enters with a 5.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Cubs have also scored eight or more runs in three of their last five completed games. With St. Louis holding the more favorable starting matchup but Chicago possessing the stronger offense, the over has value at 8.5.

Preview was completed prior to game play on Saturday.