St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Use Code SSWC The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, to face the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, July 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:30 PM ET, with coverage on Peacock. St. Louis enters the contest at 46-39 overall and 23-18 on the road, while Chicago is 49-39 overall and 26-18 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Cardinals a 39.0 percent chance to win and the Cubs a 61.0 percent chance to claim the victory. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
The Cardinals are expected to start Matthew Liberatore, who is 4-5 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP across 82.2 innings. He has allowed 95 hits, struck out 79 batters, walked 33, and surrendered 17 home runs. The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who is 6-1 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 51.2 innings. Assad has allowed 45 hits while striking out 31, issuing 13 walks, and giving up 10 home runs. Liberatore has worked more innings and recorded more strikeouts, while Assad enters with the better win-loss record, lower ERA, lower WHIP, and fewer walks.
St. Louis Carries Momentum into Chicago
The Cardinals bring a 46-39 record into Sunday’s matchup and have posted a strong 23-18 record away from home this season. St. Louis has won four of its last five games, including an impressive 17-1 victory over the Cubs. The Cardinals also recently earned wins over Atlanta twice and Miami, with their only loss during that stretch coming against Atlanta.
As a team, St. Louis is batting .248 with 396 runs, 710 hits, and 97 home runs. The Cardinals own a .325 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has compiled a 4.19 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP, 284 walks, 635 strikeouts, and a .253 opponent batting average.
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The Cardinals’ biggest statistical advantage comes from consistently getting on base. Their .325 on-base percentage is higher than Chicago’s, and they also own a slightly better team batting average. Combined with the confidence from winning four of their last five games, St. Louis enters this contest with positive momentum.
Chicago Looks to Respond at Wrigley Field
The Cubs enter the series finale with a 49-39 overall record and a 26-18 mark at home. Chicago had won four consecutive games before suffering the 17-1 loss to St. Louis on Friday. Those victories came against San Diego three times and Milwaukee, giving the Cubs a solid 4-1 record over their last five games despite the lopsided defeat.
Chicago is hitting .245 with 449 runs scored, 737 hits, and 112 home runs. The Cubs have posted a .339 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. On the mound, they own a 4.38 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP, 272 walks, 687 strikeouts, and a .244 opponent batting average.
The Cubs’ greatest strength is their offense. Chicago has scored more runs, collected more hits, and hit more home runs than St. Louis while also posting a better on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Those numbers highlight an offense capable of rebounding after a difficult performance.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
The Cubs are the selection based strictly on the information provided. They hold the better overall record, the stronger home record, and the higher matchup predictor percentage. Chicago also owns the statistical edge in runs scored, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. While St. Louis has been playing well recently, the Cubs’ overall body of work gives them the edge entering Sunday’s game.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
I like the over if the total is set at 8.5. Both offenses have produced solid numbers throughout the season, and both starting pitchers enter with ERAs above 4.50. The Cardinals and Cubs each have recent games with plenty of scoring, and I think both lineups can contribute enough offense to push this matchup above the total.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6 – St. Louis Cardinals 5
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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