St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Game 1 Picks and Prediction for Monday, August 17, 2026

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds open Monday's doubleheader at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV will provide coverage as these NL Central rivals meet with St. Louis sitting at 62-61 overall and Cincinnati at 59-63. The Cardinals enter with a 30-27 road record, while the Reds are 30-32 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers on Monday's baseball action, be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more predictions throughout the league.

Starting Pitchers

Andre Pallante gets the start for St. Louis and enters Monday at 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 130 innings. Pallante has allowed 118 hits while recording 92 strikeouts against 40 walks and surrendering only 10 home runs. Cincinnati counters with Rhett Lowder, who is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 94.1 innings. Lowder has given up 100 hits, struck out 77 and walked 40 while allowing 12 home runs. The numbers give St. Louis a significant starting-pitching advantage, particularly when comparing ERA and WHIP.

Cardinals Carry the Better Pitching Profile

St. Louis comes into the doubleheader at 62-61 overall and has played winning baseball away from home with a 30-27 road record. The Cardinals have also won three of their last five games, including an 8-4 road victory over Chicago in their most recent contest. Their other recent victories came by scores of 7-1 and 2-0 against Philadelphia, while the two losses were 3-0 and 6-5. St. Louis has therefore shown the ability to win both lower-scoring games and contests requiring more offensive production.

The Cardinals are batting .239 as a team with a .315 on-base percentage and .380 slugging percentage. They have collected 984 hits, scored 537 runs and hit 127 home runs. St. Louis has been more impressive on the pitching side, posting a 4.04 team ERA and 1.34 WHIP while holding opponents to a .252 batting average. The staff has recorded 935 strikeouts against 417 walks.

Pitching is where St. Louis should have its biggest advantage Monday afternoon. The Cardinals own the better team ERA and WHIP, and their starter brings substantially stronger numbers into the matchup. St. Louis has also allowed just 11 combined runs across its last five games, including two shutout victories. Cincinnati possesses more home-run power, so limiting free passes and keeping runners off base ahead of potential extra-base hits will be important.

Reds Need Their Power to Make the Difference

Cincinnati enters Monday at 59-63 overall and 30-32 at Great American Ball Park. The Reds have also won three of their last five, although they are coming off an 8-4 home loss to Miami. Their victories during this stretch were 1-0 over Miami and 9-8 and 5-4 decisions against Chicago. Cincinnati's two defeats came by scores of 8-4 and 5-0, illustrating some of the inconsistency that has followed this club offensively.

The Reds are hitting .227 with a .307 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. They have scored 501 runs on 921 hits while hitting 160 home runs. That power total is considerably higher than St. Louis' 127, but Cincinnati trails the Cardinals in batting average, on-base percentage and total runs. On the mound, Cincinnati owns a 4.50 team ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 984 strikeouts, 502 walks and a .247 opponent batting average.

Cincinnati's clearest path to an upset is its power. The Reds have hit 33 more home runs than St. Louis and have the better team slugging percentage despite producing fewer hits and runs overall. The concern is whether that power can overcome a starting-pitching disadvantage. Cincinnati's starter enters with an ERA above five and a WHIP approaching 1.50, making traffic on the bases a significant concern against a St. Louis club that has scored at least seven runs twice in its last four games.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals ML

St. Louis is the side to back in the opening game of Monday's doubleheader. The Cardinals have the better overall record, a winning road mark and advantages in team batting average, on-base percentage, runs scored, ERA and WHIP. Most importantly, the starting-pitching matchup points toward St. Louis. The Cardinals' starter owns a 3.46 ERA and 1.22 WHIP compared with Cincinnati's 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Cincinnati's home-run advantage creates some danger, but St. Louis has enough statistical edges to warrant the moneyline selection.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals ML

Pick: Under 9.5

The starting-pitching matchup makes the under worth considering if the market settles around 9.5 runs. St. Louis has allowed only 11 runs over its last five games, with opponents scoring one run or fewer three times during that stretch. Cincinnati has also been involved in a pair of recent shutouts, including a 1-0 victory and a 5-0 loss. The Reds' home-run ability keeps this from being an automatic under at a lower number, but 9.5 provides enough room to work with.

Take the Under if the total is set at 9.5.

Preview completed before game play on Sunday.