St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. St. Louis enters the weekend at 77-82 overall and 39-39 on the road, while Milwaukee owns the best record in the NL Central at 100-59 overall and 52-26 at home. The Brewers have already reached 100 victories and lead the division by 12 games over Chicago, while St. Louis sits fourth and 23 games back. Milwaukee has dominated the completed season series with an 8-2 record against the Cardinals and enters the weekend having won four of its last five games. Friday's series opener had not been completed at the time this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

St. Louis is scheduled to start Quinn Mathews, who enters at 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 44.1 innings. He has allowed 43 hits and four home runs while recording 39 strikeouts against 18 walks. Milwaukee counters with Dustin May, who is 7-9 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 142.2 innings. He has allowed 139 hits and 13 home runs while striking out 139 and walking 49. St. Louis owns the advantage in ERA, but Milwaukee has the slightly better WHIP and its starter has worked more than three times as many innings. The Cardinals have the better run-prevention number in the starting matchup, although their starter's 1.38 WHIP suggests Milwaukee should still have opportunities to put runners on base.

Cardinals Need More Consistent Offense

St. Louis enters Saturday at 77-82 overall and has gone 2-3 across its last five completed games. The Cardinals are coming off a 2-1 loss at Pittsburgh after earning a 5-1 victory the previous night. They were shut out 2-0 in the series opener and previously split their final two completed games against Washington, winning 5-3 before losing 8-5 in 11 innings. St. Louis has scored only 11 runs across its last five completed games.

The Cardinals are batting .241 with 710 runs, 1,293 hits and 162 home runs. They carry a .314 on-base percentage and .379 slugging percentage. St. Louis has posted a 4.24 team ERA and 1.35 WHIP while recording 1,256 strikeouts against 553 walks. Opposing hitters are batting .253 against Cardinals pitching.

St. Louis' biggest issue in this matchup is generating enough offense against one of the best pitching staffs in the league. The Cardinals have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last five games, and Milwaukee has held opponents to one run or fewer in four of its last five. The Cardinals do have the better starter ERA Saturday, which gives them an opportunity to keep the game competitive early, but their offense will need to be considerably more productive than it has been recently.

Brewers Continue to Win With Pitching and Balance

Milwaukee enters Saturday at 100-59 overall and an outstanding 52-26 at American Family Field. The Brewers have won four of their last five completed games, including consecutive road victories over Philadelphia by scores of 4-1 and 5-1. Milwaukee also recorded back-to-back shutouts against Baltimore, winning 3-0 and 1-0. The Brewers have allowed only eight total runs across their last five games, with six coming in their lone defeat.

Milwaukee is batting .258 with 815 runs and 1,392 hits while carrying a .340 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Interestingly, the Brewers have hit only 152 home runs, ten fewer than St. Louis, but they have scored 105 more runs. Milwaukee's pitching has been excellent, posting a 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 1,509 strikeouts against 511 walks while limiting opponents to a .223 batting average.

The Brewers' ability to consistently generate baserunners while preventing them at the other end is the defining statistical difference. Milwaukee owns a 26-point advantage in OBP and has held opponents to an average 30 points lower than St. Louis. The Brewers have also dominated the head-to-head matchup, winning eight of ten completed meetings. Milwaukee has won games against the Cardinals with both offense and pitching, giving it several different paths to another victory.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

Milwaukee is the preferred side despite St. Louis owning the lower starter ERA. The Brewers are 100-59 overall, 52-26 at home and have won four of their last five completed games. Milwaukee has also taken eight of ten meetings from St. Louis this season. The full-season pitching gap is substantial, with the Brewers carrying a 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP compared with 4.24 and 1.35 for the Cardinals. Milwaukee also holds major offensive advantages in batting average, runs, hits, OBP and slugging. St. Louis can make this competitive if its starter pitches to his season numbers, but over nine innings Milwaukee owns too many advantages to pass up.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under is the preferred total at 8.5 or higher. Milwaukee has allowed only eight runs over its last five completed games and has held four of those five opponents to one run or fewer. St. Louis, meanwhile, has scored only 11 runs over its last five and has been held to two runs or fewer three times. The Cardinals' starter enters with a solid 3.65 ERA and has surrendered only four home runs in 44.1 innings, giving St. Louis a chance to limit Milwaukee early as well. The Brewers' offensive efficiency creates some danger, but recent run prevention and the Cardinals' offensive struggles make Under 8.5 or higher the stronger total position.

Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Friday, September 25, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.