St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 31, 2026

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Friday, July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. St. Louis enters with a 54-54 overall record and a 26-23 record away from home, while Toronto is 50-59 overall and 26-30 at Rogers Centre. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Friday’s games.

Starting Pitchers for Cardinals vs Blue Jays

Kyle Leahy is scheduled to start for St. Louis opposite Toronto right-hander Dylan Cease. Leahy enters with a 7-4 record, a 3.55 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP across 101.1 innings. He has allowed 102 hits, 34 walks and 12 home runs while recording 88 strikeouts. Cease carries a 7-5 record with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through 113.1 innings. He has surrendered 75 hits, 48 walks and seven home runs while collecting 167 strikeouts. The Toronto starter has the lower ERA and WHIP while recording 79 more strikeouts and allowing 27 fewer hits.

St. Louis Looks to Steady Itself on the Road

The Cardinals enter Friday with a 54-54 overall record and a winning 26-23 mark away from home. St. Louis has won two of its last five games, recently defeating Chicago 3-2 in 10 innings and earning a 7-0 victory over Cincinnati. The Cardinals recently lost to Chicago by scores of 10-2 and 7-3 and fell to Cincinnati 5-3 in 10 innings. Two games during that stretch required extra innings, with St. Louis splitting those contests.

St. Louis is batting .239 with 474 runs, 863 hits and 112 home runs. The Cardinals have produced a .315 on-base percentage and a .379 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while issuing 364 walks and recording 833 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .254 against St. Louis, which has compiled a 37-29 record in night games.

The Cardinals’ clearest advantage is their ability to generate more runs despite the relatively close offensive statistics. St. Louis has scored 44 more runs than Toronto while recording 26 fewer hits. The Cardinals also hold advantages in home runs and on-base percentage, while their slugging percentage trails Toronto by only one point. Their 26-23 road record provides another positive element, particularly against a Toronto team that has fallen four games below .500 at home.

Toronto’s Starting Pitching Edge Shapes the Home Outlook

The Blue Jays come into the matchup with a 50-59 overall record and a 26-30 record at Rogers Centre. Toronto has won three of its last five games, recently defeating Washington by scores of 5-2 and 3-2 and shutting out Boston 6-0. The Blue Jays recently lost to Washington 8-6 and Boston 6-1. Toronto allowed two runs or fewer in each of its three victories during this five-game stretch.

Toronto is hitting .243 with 430 runs, 889 hits and 107 home runs. The Blue Jays have a .304 on-base percentage and a .380 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has registered a 4.15 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 387 walks and collecting 967 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .242 against Toronto, which owns a 27-34 record in night games.

Toronto’s primary strength is its ability to limit opposing batting production while generating strikeouts. The Blue Jays have recorded 134 more strikeouts than St. Louis, and opponents are batting .242 against them compared with .254 against the Cardinals. Toronto also owns the slightly better team ERA and WHIP. Those pitching advantages are supported by a scheduled starter entering with a 2.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 167 strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

St. Louis has the better overall record and owns a winning record on the road, but Toronto enters with the stronger recent results. The Cardinals are 54-54 overall and 26-23 away from home, while the Blue Jays are 50-59 overall and 26-30 at home. St. Louis has won two of its last five, whereas Toronto has earned three victories during the same span.

The matchup predictor gives Toronto a 56.3% probability of winning compared with 43.7% for St. Louis. The Cardinals have produced more runs, home runs and a better on-base percentage, but the Blue Jays hold advantages in batting average, hits, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponent batting average.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick

• Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto is the moneyline selection because of its starting pitching advantage, stronger recent record and 56.3% matchup predictor probability. The Blue Jays have won three of their last five games and allowed no more than two runs in each victory. Toronto’s scheduled starter also enters with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, compared with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP for the St. Louis starter. The Cardinals’ superior road record and higher run total could keep the game close, but Toronto’s pitching numbers give the home team the edge.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Toronto’s scheduled starter has allowed 75 hits and seven home runs across 113.1 innings while recording 167 strikeouts. The Blue Jays have held three of their last five opponents to two runs or fewer, including one shutout. St. Louis has also scored three runs or fewer in four of its last five games. I expect the starting pitching matchup and recent scoring results to keep the final total below the target number.

Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.