Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 10, 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves meet Thursday at Truist Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 12:15 PM ET and the game televised on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Tampa Bay is 86-58, leads the AL East by four games over New York and owns a 39-33 road record. Atlanta is 85-60, leads the NL East by four games over Philadelphia and is 48-25 at home. The Rays have won three of their last five, including Tuesday's 7-1 victory in Atlanta, while the Braves have dropped three of five. Check out our free MLB picks.

Tampa Bay Rays Finding Runs on the Road

Tampa Bay has scored at least six runs in four of its last five games, including seven against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Rays are batting .261 with a .329 on-base percentage and .405 slugging percentage while scoring 654 runs. Junior Caminero has powered the lineup with 39 home runs, 93 RBI and a .282 average. Yandy Diaz is batting .306 with a .373 on-base percentage, 22 homers and 79 RBI, while Chandler Simpson leads Tampa Bay with a .307 average and has stolen 40 bases.

Jonathan Aranda adds another productive bat with a .279 average, 19 home runs and 86 RBI. Tampa Bay also has 144 stolen bases, creating another way to pressure opposing pitchers. The pitching staff owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to a .231 average. Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or fewer in two of its last five games, including one run against Atlanta. 

Injuries: Bryan Baker is day-to-day. Jake Fraley and Jonathan Heasley are on the 60-day IL, Edwin Uceta is on the 60-day IL, and Ben Williamson is on the 10-day IL.

Atlanta Braves Trying to Get the Bats Going

Atlanta has scored three total runs across its last three games, losing 4-2 and 1-0 to Philadelphia before Tuesday's 7-1 loss to Tampa Bay. The Braves are batting .247 with a .310 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage while scoring 666 runs. Matt Olson remains the leading power threat with 37 home runs and 80 RBI. Michael Harris II is batting .289 with 24 homers, 80 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, while Drake Baldwin owns a .276 average, .352 on-base percentage, and 22 home runs.

Ozzie Albies has 21 home runs and 68 RBI, while Ronald Acuna Jr. has 16 homers, 45 RBI and 20 stolen bases. Atlanta's pitching has been one of its strongest areas, posting a 3.57 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average. The Braves have allowed four runs or fewer in four of their last five games, but the offense has not consistently matched that work. Atlanta's 48-25 home record remains important with the Braves trying to protect their NL East lead.

Injuries: Reynaldo Lopez is on the 15-day IL, Robert Suarez, Joe Jimenez, and Spencer Strider are on the 60-day IL, and Bryce Elder is out.

Pitching Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays - Nick Martinez

Nick Martinez is 14-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 160 innings. The right-hander has allowed 152 hits and 19 home runs while striking out 95 and walking only 24. Martinez's low walk total has helped him limit unnecessary baserunners, and his 14 victories lead Tampa Bay's rotation. His 160 innings also represent a substantial workload, with Martinez consistently taking the ball deep enough to reduce demands on the bullpen.

Atlanta Braves - Martin Perez

Martin Perez is 8-9 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 124.2 innings. The left-hander has surrendered 104 hits and 13 home runs while recording 94 strikeouts and 54 walks. Perez has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, and his home-run total has remained manageable. Walks have been the larger concern, with 54 free passes increasing the number of baserunners he has needed to work around during his starts.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Game Pick

• Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is the pick behind Nick Martinez and a lineup that has scored at least six runs in four of its last five games. Martinez owns a 14-4 record, 3.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while Atlanta has scored only three runs across its last three contests. Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda provide several productive bats, and the Rays also create pressure with 144 stolen bases. Atlanta remains excellent at home, but Tampa Bay's recent scoring and Martinez's season numbers give the Rays an edge on Thursday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick with both starting pitchers carrying ERAs close to three and each staff ranking among the stronger groups in baseball. Martinez has a 3.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while Perez owns a 3.25 ERA and has allowed only 13 home runs in 124.2 innings. Atlanta has scored three total runs across its last three games, adding another reason to expect limited scoring. Tampa Bay has been producing runs lately, but the Braves' 3.57 team ERA makes it more difficult to score many runs.