Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23, 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, on Sunday, August 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET, with coverage available on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Tampa Bay enters at 76-52 overall and 33-29 on the road, while Baltimore is 62-67 overall and 33-33 at home. The Rays sit atop the American League East despite dropping two straight games, while Baltimore enters off a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay in the series opener. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking over Sunday's card can also check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions.

Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay is expected to send Nick Martinez to the mound. He enters at 12-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 141.2 innings, allowing 139 hits with 83 strikeouts, 22 walks and 17 home runs surrendered. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who is 4-13 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 145.2 innings. He has allowed 147 hits while recording 132 strikeouts against 49 walks and has given up 11 home runs. Tampa Bay owns the stronger statistical profile on the mound, with the advantages in ERA, WHIP and control particularly significant.

Rays Have the Stronger Overall Profile

Tampa Bay enters Sunday at 76-52 and remains in first place in the American League East. The Rays are 33-29 away from home, but recent results have been uneven. They have gone 2-3 over their last five games and have dropped two straight, including Friday's 5-3 loss in Baltimore.

The Rays have been the more productive offensive club statistically, batting .261 with 582 runs, 1,123 hits and a .330 on-base percentage. Their .406 slugging percentage also gives them an advantage over Baltimore, although the Orioles have hit more home runs. Tampa Bay's pitching numbers are another major strength, with a 3.87 team ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .234 opponent batting average.

The biggest advantage for Tampa Bay is balance. The Rays hold sizeable edges in batting average, on-base percentage, ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Their recent form has not matched their season-long performance, but the broader statistical profile remains considerably stronger than Baltimore's.

Orioles Trying to Build on Series-Opening Win

Baltimore comes into the matchup at 62-67 and sits 14.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the division. The Orioles are an even 33-33 at Camden Yards and snapped a four-game losing streak with Friday's 5-3 victory over the Rays. That win was an important response after Baltimore had scored only five combined runs across its previous three games.

The Orioles are batting .236 as a team with 579 runs, 1,010 hits and 157 home runs. Their power numbers are respectable, but the .319 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage both trail Tampa Bay. Baltimore's bigger concern has been run prevention, where the club owns a 4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .254 opponent batting average.

Baltimore has enough power to create problems, but its pitching profile leaves considerably less margin for error. The Orioles have allowed opponents to reach base more frequently and are facing a Tampa Bay club that has done a much better job generating hits and controlling the strike zone over the course of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Tampa Bay is the preferred side despite Baltimore taking the opening game of the series. The Rays own the better overall record, stronger offensive efficiency and a substantial season-long advantage in pitching. The projected starting matchup also favors Tampa Bay, particularly when comparing ERA and WHIP. Baltimore's home-field advantage keeps this from being an automatic play, but the Rays have more statistical paths to winning this game and are the better side to back.

Pick: Under 8.5

The Under is the preferred total if the number is set at 8.5. Tampa Bay brings one of the stronger overall pitching profiles into this matchup, and its projected starter enters with a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Baltimore's offense has produced power but owns only a .236 team batting average, while Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in two of its last three games. A controlled start from the Rays could keep this game in a lower-scoring range.

Side Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Total Pick: Under 8.5

Game Preview completed prior to play on Saturday.