Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Picks for Tuesday, September 23rd, 2025
The final week of the MLB season is upon us, and Tuesday’s slate kicks off with a divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays (76-80) and the Baltimore Orioles (73-83). We’ve got you covered with our Rays vs. Orioles prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 6:35 ET from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Rays Bounce Back, Beat Red Sox
The Tampa Bay Rays are typically a team that finds itself in the playoff hunt when September rolls around, and that was the case about three weeks ago. However, the Rays have gone just 5-11 in their last 16 games, which has pushed them out of playoff contention. Tampa is 76-80 overall, which puts them 14.0 games out of first place in the division, while sitting 8.0 games out of the wild card. The Rays are coming off of a series loss to the Red Sox (L: 11-7, L: 6-3, W: 7-3), but they managed to salvage a win over Boston on Sunday.
Sunday’s 7-3 victory over the Red Sox saw Joe Boyle (4.1 IP, 1 ER) turn in a decent start, but it was Garrett Cleavinger (1.0 IP, 0 ER) who ultimately picked up the win in relief. Offensively, Brandon Lowe clobbered his 30th home run, while Junior Caminero logged a 2-for-3 day with two runs scored.
- Ryan Pepiot gets the nod for the Rays on Tuesday, and the 28-year-old hurler has been a bright spot in a dark season for Tampa.
- In 30 starts (164.2 IP), the right-hander has gone 11-11 with a 3.77 ERA (25th) and a 1.16 WHIP (19th).
- Most recently, Pepiot faced the Blue Jays on Tuesday, but he lasted only 12 innings after getting tagged for four earned runs on four hits and three walks.
- He took the loss in a 6-5 defeat.
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Orioles in the Cellar of the East
The Baltimore Orioles were plagued by injuries early in the year, and when combining that with the departures this past offseason of key players Anthony Santander and Corbin Burnes, it’s quite easy to see in hindsight why they’re just 73-83. The O’s are eliminated from the playoffs, sitting 17.0 games out of the divisional lead and 11.0 games out of the wild card. The Orioles are 4-3 in their last seven games, but they’re coming off of a four-game series loss to the Yankees (L: 7-0, W: 4-2, L: 6-1, L: 7-1) at home.
The Orioles’ 7-1 defeat on Sunday looks lopsided, but the game was actually tied 1-1 heading into the 10th. Kyle Bradish (6.0 IP, 1 ER) was sharp in his start, and Kade Strowd (1.0 IP, 1 ER) was ultimately saddled with the loss. The lone offensive run came courtesy of Samuel Basallo's home run in the 5th.
- Dean Kremer will oppose Pepiot on Tuesday, and the 29-year-old hasn’t been overpowering in 29 outings (164.0 IP) this season.
- The right-hander is currently 10-10 with a 4.39 ERA (41st) and a 1.26 WHIP (34th).
- Kremer last pitched on Tuesday against the White Sox, and he held them to two earned runs on four hits and three walks over 5.2 innings.
- He earned the win in an 8-7 victory.
Rays vs. Orioles Pick
Moneyline Pick for Rays vs. Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-110) (5 units)
Even though these teams are both out of playoff contention, this should still be a fun matchup between a couple of top-end starters for their respective clubs. The oddsmakers agree, pricing this game in the pick ‘em range (TB -110, BAL +100).
I’ll ride with the Rays at this price. They’re simply the more polished, well-rounded team in this matchup. The Orioles don’t have much of a home-field advantage either, as they’re just 37-41 SU this season. They also have a run differential of -104, which is the second-worst in the American League. Their bullpen is also a bottom-10 unit, ranking 26th in relief ERA (4.66) and 28th in WHIP (1.43). The Rays should be able to capitalize and outpace this unreliable Orioles squad on Tuesday night.
Over/Under Pick for Rays vs. Orioles
- Under 9.0 (-119) (5 units)
In addition to all of the anti-Baltimore metrics above, it’s also worth noting that the Orioles have been underwhelming offensively as of late. Over the last seven days, the O’s are 23rd in wOBA (.287) and 20th in ISO (.130). The Rays are just 21st in ISO (.128), so due to the lack of power between the teams, I’m going to play the under at this elevated number.
Furthermore, Tampa Bay has struggled against Dean Kremer in the past. Their current roster is slashing just .232/.323/.341 against him over 82 at-bats. When thinking of the range of outcomes, this final score skews lower to me. I don’t think we see 10+ runs, and I like the “push potential” that comes with playing the under at a flat 9.0. Give me the under.
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