Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Picks for Wednesday, September 24th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The MLB action continues on Wednesday with a divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays (76-81) and the Baltimore Orioles (73-83), and we’ve got you covered with our Rays vs. Orioles prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 6:35 ET from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Rays Just 5-12 in Last 17 Games
The Tampa Bay Rays were in playoff contention entering the month of September, but they’ve completely fallen off and are now eliminated from participating in October baseball. Tampa is just 76-81 overall, which puts them 14.0 games out of the divisional lead and 9.0 games out of the wild card. The Rays are in the midst of a 5-12 stretch, and they also dropped Tuesday’s series opener to the Orioles in a 6-0 affair.
Offense was tough to come by in Tuesday’s 6-0 defeat, as the Rays were blanked and only managed two hits. Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe each went 1-for-4. Ryan Pepiot took the loss after allowing three earned runs over 3.0 innings.
- Shane Baz gets the nod for the Rays on Wednesday, and the 26-year-old hurler has not been overpowering in 30 starts (162.1 IP) this season.
- The right-hander comes into this game at 10-12 with a 4.99 ERA (48th) and a 1.35 WHIP (46th). His 173 strikeouts are the 24th-most in the Majors.
- Baz is coming off of an excellent 5.0-inning start against the Blue Jays, where he held them scoreless and gave up only two hits and a walk.
- He picked up the win in the 4-0 victory.
Orioles in the Cellar of the East
Meanwhile, this season has pretty much been a disaster for the Baltimore Orioles. They were banged up out of the gate and started the campaign just 15-32, and the franchise never managed to climb out of the hole. This young Orioles core has played decently since the ugly start, and they’ve managed to get back to 74-83 overall. The O’s are in the midst of a 5-3 stretch, which includes their 6-0 series-opening victory over the Rays on Tuesday.
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Dean Kremer was lights out in his start on Tuesday night, tossing scoreless 6.1 innings and earning the 6-0 win. Offensively, Baltimore logged seven hits, and Colton Cowser led the way. The outfielder blasted a home run and scored twice in his 2-for-4 day at the dish.
- Tyler Wells will oppose Baz on Wednesday evening, and the 31-year-old starter has been superb in three starts (17.2 IP) this season.
- The right-hander is currently 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP.
- Most recently, Wells faced the White Sox on the 17th, where he held them to one earned run on four hits over 6.0 innings.
- He earned the win in the 3-1 victory, as the Orioles improved to 3-0 in his starts.
Rays vs. Orioles Pick
Moneyline Pick for Rays vs. Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-103) (5 units)
This game is priced as a pick ‘em (TB -103, BAL -110), and I think that’s a fair price considering both teams have nothing to play for at this point. With that being said, I’m going to ride with the Rays to capture the win on Wednesday night.
Both of these starters, Shane Baz and Tyler Wells, are in solid form at the moment. I believe that Tampa’s edge in this game comes in the late innings, where they’ll be able to lean on their top-10 bullpen. The Rays’ relief staff is currently ranked ninth in ERA (3.69) and ninth in opposing batting average (.235), while the Orioles are 25th (4.64) and 26th (.252), respectively. Ultimately, Tampa is the more well-rounded of these underperformers, which is exemplified by the sizable gap in their run differential this season (TB +43, BAL -98).
Over/Under Pick for Rays vs. Orioles
- Under 8.5 (-105) (5 units)
I’ll also be on the under in Baltimore on Wednesday. As I mentioned, these starters are in great form. Tyler Wells has been lights out in three starts (17.1 IP) this season, logging a 2.04 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP. All three of the games that he has pitched in this season have stayed under 8.5 runs, and the opposition is averaging only 1.33 runs per game across those outings.
On the other hand, we have Shane Baz throwing. He just tossed 5.0 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays last time out. The right-hander has dominated the Orioles in the past, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .143/.182/.286 over 21 at-bats. All things considered, it appears that the under is the best way to play this total while it’s at 8.5 runs.
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