Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 17, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox open a doubleheader at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on Friday, July 17, 2026, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. This contest is a makeup of the game postponed on May 9 and will be televised on MLB.TV. Tampa Bay enters at 56-38 overall and 21-23 on the road, while Boston is 46-48 overall and 17-27 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Rays a 50.7% chance to win and the Red Sox a 49.3% chance. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers for Rays vs Red Sox Game 1
Griffin Jax will start for Tampa Bay opposite Boston left-hander Jake Bennett. Jax is 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 70 innings. He has allowed 61 hits, 25 walks, and 12 home runs while recording 71 strikeouts. Bennett is 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 47.2 innings. He has surrendered 37 hits, eight walks, and three home runs while striking out 35. Bennett holds the lower ERA and WHIP, while Jax has pitched more innings and accumulated more strikeouts.
Tampa Bay Brings the Better Overall Record to Boston
Tampa Bay enters Game 1 with a 56-38 overall record and a 21-23 mark away from home. The Rays have won three of their last five games, recently earning victories of 6-1 and 7-2 over Seattle and a 3-0 win over the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay recently lost 8-2 to Seattle and 12-4 to New York. The Rays have scored at least six runs in two of their three victories during this stretch.
The Rays are batting .259 with 811 hits, 425 runs, and 94 home runs. They have recorded a .334 on-base percentage and a .401 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff carries a 3.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, with 252 walks and 762 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .232 against the Rays, and Tampa Bay has compiled a 21-18 record in day games.
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The Rays’ most notable strength is the balance between their offensive and pitching numbers. Tampa Bay holds the higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in this matchup. The Rays have also scored 40 more runs and hit nine more home runs than Boston. Their 1.17 pitching WHIP is better than the Red Sox’s 1.22 mark, while their .232 opponent batting average is also lower. Those advantages support Tampa Bay despite its sub-.500 road record.
Boston Returns Home on a Five-Game Winning Streak
Boston enters Friday’s doubleheader with a 46-48 overall record and a 17-27 record at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have won each of their last five games, recently defeating the New York Mets 3-2 in 10 innings, 4-0, and 6-2. Boston also earned victories of 2-1 and 5-0 over the Chicago White Sox. The Red Sox allowed only five total runs across those five victories and recorded two shutouts.
The Red Sox are batting .243 with 764 hits, 385 runs, and 85 home runs. Boston has posted a .314 on-base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, with 273 walks and 802 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .238 against Boston, and the Red Sox are 15-22 in day games.
Pitching has been Boston’s clearest strength in the supplied information. The Red Sox have the lower team ERA, and their Game 1 starter brings a 2.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP into the matchup. Boston’s recent run prevention has also been excellent, with the club holding all five of its previous opponents to two runs or fewer. However, the Red Sox have a 17-27 home record and trail Tampa Bay in each of the supplied team batting categories.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Picks and Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Tampa Bay is my moneyline selection in the opening game. The Rays own the stronger overall record and hold advantages in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Boston enters on a five-game winning streak and has the lower team ERA, making this a closely matched contest. That balance is reflected in the matchup predictor, which gives Tampa Bay a narrow 50.7% edge. The Rays’ broader statistical advantages provide enough support to take them to win Game 1.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Game 1 Total Pick
- Take the under if the total is set at 8.0.
I would take the under at 8.0 because Boston has allowed only five total runs across its last five games. The Red Sox recorded two shutouts during that stretch and did not surrender more than two runs in any of those contests. The two starting pitchers enter with ERAs of 3.47 and 2.64, while their WHIPs stand at 1.23 and 0.94. Boston has also scored four runs or fewer in four of its five recent victories, giving this matchup a reasonable path to a lower-scoring result.
Final Score Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 4 – Boston Red Sox 3
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