Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction and Picks - Friday, September 12, 2025
The Cubs are back at home this Friday as Tampa Bay visits to start a fresh three-game series. Find out more about this matchup with our Rays vs. Cubs prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 1:20pm CT (2:20pm ET) at the Cubs' historic Wrigley Field home.
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Rays playoff hopes fading
While there is still plenty of baseball to be played, the Tampa Bay Rays are close to missing out on the playoffs for a third straight year. After Thursday's 5-1 loss to the White Sox the Rays are now 1-5 in their last six games and sit 6.0 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot, with three teams in between them and current occupants the Mariners. Tampa Bay has put up two runs or fewer in four of those six games and has been outscored 15-27 over that same period.
The Rays will turn to Shane Baz for the series opener against the Cubs. Baz is currently enjoying his first full season in the majors, having been plagued with injuries since making his debut with Tampa Bay back in 2021. Results have been mixed: the right-hander has gone 9-11 with a 4.94 ERA, striking out 164 batters in 155.0 innings but also issuing 55 walks at a rate of 3.31 BB/9, the sixth-highest of any qualified AL starters. Baz has looked better so far in September, pitching to a 1.64 ERA off two starts after putting up a 7.92 ERA in August.
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Cubs close on postseason return
The Chicago Cubs (83-63) are getting closer and closer to their first playoff appearance since the shortened 2020 season. The NL Central may have slipped away due to a drop-off in form in the second half and Milwaukee's incredible surge, but Chicago holds the first NL Wild Card spot and looks a safe bet to win home advantage for the series as they sit 3.0 games clear of San Diego. Cubs pitching came through strong this week to clinch a hard-fought series against the Braves, restricting Atlanta to three runs as they won the last two games against ace duo Spencer Strider and Chris Sale. Chicago is without Kyle Tucker, who went on the IL this week with a calf strain, while closer Daniel Palencia (shoulder) was also grounded.
Matthew Boyd will get the start for the Cubs for Friday's matinee. The left-hander has pitched exceptionally in his first season at Wrigley, going 12-8 with a 2.92 ERA and a WHIP of 1.06 to rank eighth and fifth, respectively, among qualified NL starters. Perhaps most encouraging for Chicago has been Boyd's availability: he has put up 28 starts in 2025, more than the previous two seasons combined.
Rays vs. Cubs pick
Spread Pick for Rays vs. Cubs
- Cubs ML (5 units)
Boyd has been lights-out for the Cubs, and I am backing them to ride another strong start from the lefty and take the win against this struggling Rays team. Boyd has been particularly impressive pitching at Wrigley this year, where he has gone an incredible 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA. Even in that solo loss last Saturday against Washington, the southpaw still held the Nationals to only two earned runs over 7.0 innings. The Cubs are dominant at home with a W/L record of 44-26. The Rays have gone 34-37 playing on the road.
Take the Cubs on the moneyline.
Over/under Pick for Rays vs. Cubs
- Under (5 units)
The Cubs have had problems hitting in front of their own fans this year and I think the under is the smart bet for this one. The Cubs' lineup has a collective .721 OPS at Wrigley, ranking 15th in MLB, compared to .765 (third in MLB) on the road, while they average 1.18 home runs per game in their own ballpark and 1.5/G in away games. Without Tucker's big bat, scoring should be at a premium, particularly given Boyd's spectacular form and the Rays' own issues at the plate. Tampa Bay ranks 25th in pro baseball with a road OPS of .683.
Take the under.
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