Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Picks and Prediction - September 11, 2025
We have a rookie pitching matchup in Thursday’s series finale, so be sure to check out our breakdowns and Rays vs. White Sox predictions. Tampa Bay (72-72, 4th in A.L. East) will roll out RHP Ian Seymour (3-1, 2.89 ERA) for this one. Chicago (55-90, 5th in A.L. Central) counters with RHP Shane Smith (5-7, 3.96 ERA). The first pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 2:10 EST and if you’re finding yourself in a slump, check out our Free MLB Picks.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Wednesday night’s games.)
Rays need a miracle down the stretch
The Rays chances of a run at the Wild Card took a hit when they dropped three straight against Cleveland. In snapping that with a win against the Sox on Tuesday, they sat 4.5 games behind the third Wild Card spot. The offense has been lacking of late, scoring a combined 13 runs over their last five games. Prior to Tuesday, the Rays had a .252 team average, fifth in the American League, with 649 runs, seventh in the league. The team’s 178 stolen bases are 25 more than the next closest team. Chandler Simpson is second in the league with 39 swipes and Jake Mangum is tied for 11th with 23 stolen bases. Junior Caminero is third in the A.L. with 41 home runs and 103 RBIs.
Over the last 15 days, the Rays' pitching staff had a 2.57 ERA over 12 games, the best mark of an American League in that staff. They sit fifth in the league with a 3.85 ERA overall this season, accompanied by a 1.20 team WHIP. Opponents have hit .235 against the team and Tampa pitchers have 1,260 strikeouts, fourth most in the A.L. Starting pitching for the club has a 46-41 record with 4.35 ERA and the bullpen has 23 wins, 33 saves and a 3.66 ERA.
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Starter spotlight
- Ian Seymour makes his 3rd start and 15th appearances of the season.
- He came out of the pen last Friday for four innings against Cleveland and allowed five runs, one earned, five hits and two walks.
- All three home runs allowed this season came in the same game.
- Opponents are hitting .204 with 12 walks against the rookie.
- Faced the White Sox as a reliever in late July, allowing just two hits over 1.2 innings.
White Sox know their role
As the lone team already eliminated in the American League, the White Sox have been doing well playing the spoiler, before they fell to Tampa Bay on Tuesday night. They still managed to score four runs in the loss, something they’ve done in seven of their last eight games. The team hit .249 with 63 runs over the last 13 games and on the year, the team has a .235 batting average, 13th in the A.L. They’ve scored 586 runs, and their 453 walks were seventh most in the league. Miguel Vargas, who is tied for eighth in the A.L. with 30 doubles, was reinstated from the IL on Wednesday. Lenyn Sosa leads the club with 20 home runs, 65 RBIs and a .265 batting average.
As has been the case for much of the year, pitching struggles persist. Over their last 13 games, the Sox staff had a 5.26 ERA, despite a 7-6 record. Through 145 games, they had a 4.24 team ERA, 11th in the American League, with a 1.36 WHIP. The 1,129 strikeouts they have recorded are the fewest in the league and their 535 walks are, second most. From the starters, they’ve received 29-48 record with 4.39 ERA, and the bullpen has chipped in with 26 wins, a league-low 22 saves and a 4.11 ERA.
Starter spotlight
- This will be the 26th start for Shane Smith, with the team having a 7-18 record when he goes.
- He earned a win last Friday after allowing four runs, three hits and two runs over five innings in Detroit.
- Went at least five innings in his last six starts.
- Opponents are hitting .212 with 16 home runs and 52 walks against the rookie.
- This will be his first appearances against Tampa Bay.
Rays vs. White Sox Picks
Spread Picks for Rays vs. White Sox
- Rays -142 (4 units)
The first four games between these two this season have been split evenly, 2-2. This is a fun matchup with two rookies going toe-to-toe, though both are a bit unheralded. That said, they’ve both had their moments this season. Smith has allowed a combined two earned runs over his last three home starts. Seymour, in his two starts this season, went five innings and struck out eight in each, while allowing a combined one earned runs, five hits and two walks. Both were on the road as well. The Rays are also hitting better on the road, .241, than the White Sox are at home, .234. Tampa Bay is 4-3 in the last seven games between the teams.
Take the Rays.
Over/Under Picks for Rays vs. White Sox
- Over 8 (5 units)
In Tuesday’s series opener, they combined for nine runs to hit the over against an eight-run total. While yes, these rookie starters have had some very strong efforts this season, we are talking about two teams that seem to always let the offenses go to work when they meet. Smith has allowed at least two earned runs in three of four starts, with two of those efforts seeing him allow four runs. He is also backed by a weak bullpen, which we can presume will give up a few. Seymour has been in limbo a bit between the pen and the rotation and the back-and-forth of that can affect a hurler. The Rays’ pitcher allowed a combined 18 runs over his last five efforts. On the offensive side, Tampa has scored at least four runs in eight of their last 11 games. Chicago scored six or more in three of their last five games. The over is 6-4 in the last ten meetings between the two.
Take the over.
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