Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Friday October 23 2026

The 2026 World Series will get underway on Friday night, when the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers. First pitch is scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 8:00 pm EST. American Family Field will be the scene and the game will be televised on Fox. The Brewers are a -161 home favorite and the total is sitting at 6. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.

Tampa Bay bats starting to come to life

The Tampa Bay Rays have qualified for the postseason in six of their last ten seasons and are making their second World Series appearance since 2020. The Rays (98-64) finished five games on the road during the regular season and have won three of their four road playoff games. In Game Six of the ALCS, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero each hit two-run blasts to power Tampa Bay to a 7-3 home victory versus Cleveland.

Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has not announced a starting pitcher for Game One. Thirty-one year old righty Drew Rasmussen (16-5 2.67 ERA) has allowed three runs in 21 postseason innings and would be the most likely option. Tampa Bay ranked 15th in the majors with a 4.12 bullpen ERA and closer Bryan Baker (7 IP) has notched five saves while not allowing a run in the playoffs. 

During the regular season, Tampa Bay finished eighth in the majors in OPS and averaged 4.54 runs per game. The Rays have hit seven long balls and have scored 35 runs in nine playoff games. Leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz leads Tampa Bay this postseason with 12 hits and seven runs scored.

Milwaukee confident with Misiorowski on the bump

The Milwaukee Brewers have quietly made eight playoff appearances in the last ten years and are in search of their first World Series title. The Brewers (103-59) tied with Tampa Bay for the most home victories (55) and have won four straight home playoff games. Last Thursday, Garrett Mitchell’s go-ahead sixth inning solo shot propelled Milwaukee to a 6-4 road victory and series sweep of Los Angeles. 

Twenty-four year old righty Jacob Misiorowski (16-5 1.80 ERA) will take the ball for the Brewers on Friday. Last time out, Misiorowski lasted just four plus innings and fanned five batters during a 2-1 home victory. For the season, Misiorowski ranked first in the majors in ERA, strikeouts (252), and WHIP (0.80).

The Brewers ranked fourth in the majors with a .743 OPS and scored 5.14 runs per game for the regular season. Twenty-two year old OF Jackson Chourio led the team with a .291 batting average to go along with 25 home runs and 23 stolen bases. Milwaukee leads all playoff teams with a .739 OPS and has hit ten home runs in eight games.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -160

Milwaukee P Brandon Woodruff is dealing with a shoulder injury and is unlikely to be added to the World Series roster. These two teams have met twice in the last two years and each took a series at home by a 2-1 margin. Misiorowski has seen his pitch count elevated in each of his previous two starts and the Brewers still won both times. Look for the flamethrower to have his best start of the playoffs and lead Milwaukee to a home victory.

Pick: First Five innings under 3 (-105) and under 6 (-110)

Tampa Bay batters struck out the fewest times during the regular season, but facing Misiorowski will be their biggest challenge. Misiorowski’s home ERA was a ridiculous 1.52 and he retired seven Rays in six innings during the regular season. Both pitching staffs have been solid throughout the playoffs and the managers will have all the high leverage arms at their disposal. Take the F5 under and the game under.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 3-1