Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Game 1 Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 22 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, for Game 1 of a doubleheader that includes the makeup of the May 23 postponement. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM ET with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Tampa Bay enters at 95-60 overall and 40-34 on the road, while New York is 89-66 overall and 42-32 at home. The Rays hold a six-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East and have won four of their last five games, while New York has dropped three of its last five. Tampa Bay also leads the season series 6-3 heading into this four-game stretch in New York. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay is scheduled to start Nick Martinez, who enters at 15-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 171.1 innings. He has allowed 159 hits and 21 home runs while striking out 101 and walking only 24. New York counters with Carlos Rodon, who is 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 76.1 innings. He has allowed only 48 hits and seven home runs while recording 83 strikeouts against 38 walks. The ERAs are nearly identical, but Tampa Bay's starter has carried a much larger workload and owns the better WHIP and walk rate, while New York's starter has produced considerably more strikeouts per inning.

Rays Bring the AL East's Best Record Into New York

Tampa Bay enters this series with the best record in the division at 95-60 and has continued to play winning baseball down the stretch. The Rays took four of their last five games, including consecutive wins over Boston by scores of 5-1 and 2-1 after previously beating the Athletics 10-1 and 4-3. Their only loss during that span was a 4-2 result against Boston. Tampa Bay has also controlled the season series with New York, winning six of the first nine meetings.

The Rays are batting .259 as a team with 707 runs, 1,345 hits and 164 home runs. They carry a .328 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage, giving them the higher batting average and OBP in this matchup. Tampa Bay's pitching has been even more impressive, producing a 3.70 team ERA and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to a .229 batting average. The staff has issued only 385 walks while recording 1,261 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay's biggest advantage may be its balance. The Rays do not possess the same home-run total as New York, but they put more runners on base while also carrying the stronger WHIP. Their recent results reinforce that profile, as Tampa Bay has allowed only 10 total runs across its last five games. With a quality starter opening the doubleheader, the Rays have a legitimate opportunity to control Game 1 through run prevention rather than needing a high-scoring performance.

Yankees Look to End a Short Losing Streak at Home

New York returns to Yankee Stadium at 89-66 after dropping consecutive games in Arizona. The Yankees lost 8-4 on Sunday and 5-3 on Saturday after opening that series with a 9-2 victory. Their previous two games at Minnesota resulted in an 8-1 win and a 5-4 loss in 13 innings, leaving New York 2-3 over its last five. Despite the recent dip, the Yankees remain an excellent 42-32 at home.

New York is batting .235 with 713 runs, 1,206 hits and 216 home runs. The Yankees carry a .311 OBP and .410 slugging percentage, so their offensive profile is built more around power than batting average. Their pitching numbers are outstanding, with a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .223 opponent batting average. New York has struck out 1,390 hitters while walking 466.

The Yankees' clearest strength is their combination of power and run prevention. They have hit 52 more home runs than Tampa Bay while owning the lower team ERA. The tradeoff is that Tampa Bay reaches base more consistently and has issued 81 fewer walks on the pitching side. New York's ability to turn one or two mistakes into home runs keeps the Yankees dangerous in any close game, but the matchup looks considerably more balanced than the six-game difference in the standings might suggest.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Tampa Bay gets the slight edge in Game 1 because of the combination of recent form and the starting pitching matchup. The Rays have won four of five, lead the season series 6-3 and enter with a starter carrying a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 171.1 innings. New York has the stronger overall team ERA and the home-field advantage, but the Yankees have lost consecutive games and are just 2-3 over their last five. This is close enough that I would prefer Tampa Bay on the moneyline rather than laying a run line.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

Both starting pitchers enter with ERAs below 3.00, and both clubs rank well in overall run prevention. Tampa Bay owns a 3.70 team ERA and has allowed only 10 runs over its last five games, while New York carries an even better 3.22 ERA. The Yankees' home-run power creates some danger for the under, but this matchup has enough high-end pitching to favor a lower-scoring opener. Under 8.5 or higher is the preferred total position.

Final Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Monday, September 21, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.