Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 24, 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees meet Thursday at Yankee Stadium, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Tampa Bay is 96-61, 41-35 away and first in the AL East, six games ahead of New York. The Rays split Tuesday’s doubleheader with the Yankees, winning the second game 6-1 after a 2-0 loss. New York is 90-67, 43-33 at home and second in the AL East. The Yankees have clinched a wild-card berth and trail Tampa Bay by six games in the division. Here is a closer look at our free MLB picks.

Tampa Bay Rays Staying on Top of the AL East

Tampa Bay has won three of its last five results, including a 6-1 victory over New York in the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader. Junior Caminero is batting .275 with 41 home runs, 97 RBI and a .525 slugging percentage. Yandy Diaz has a .291 average with 22 homers and 85 RBI, while Jonathan Aranda is hitting .277 with 22 home runs and 92 RBI. Chandler Simpson leads the club with a .309 average and has stolen 46 bases.

The Rays rank first in MLB with a .258 batting average and have scored 713 runs with 164 home runs, a .327 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff ranks seventh with a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .228 opponent average. Rays pitchers have recorded 1,285 strikeouts while allowing 193 home runs. Tampa Bay ranks 19th in fielding with 89 errors and a .984 fielding percentage and owns a 41-35 road record.

Injuries: Manuel Rodriguez (out), Garrett Cleavinger (out), Gavin Lux (out), Edwin Uceta (out), Jonathan Heasley (out).

New York Yankees Trying to Gain Ground at Home

New York has lost three of its last five results, including a 6-1 defeat against Tampa Bay in the second game Tuesday. Ben Rice is batting .260 with a .359 on-base percentage and .525 slugging percentage while leading the Yankees with 39 home runs and 95 RBI. Cody Bellinger has a .268 average, 17 home runs and 73 RBI. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has added 19 homers, 55 RBI and 40 stolen bases, while Aaron Judge has 18 home runs in 66 games.

The Yankees have scored 716 runs and hit 217 home runs despite ranking 28th in MLB with a .234 batting average. New York has a .310 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage. The pitching staff ranks first with a 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .223 opponent average, with 1,404 strikeouts and 159 home runs allowed. New York ranks 19th in fielding with 92 errors and a .984 fielding percentage and is 43-33 at Yankee Stadium.

Injuries: Clarke Schmidt (questionable), Fernando Cruz (out), Giancarlo Stanton (out), Trent Grisham (out), Ryan Weathers (out).

Pitching Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays - Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta is 9-11 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 163.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 157 hits and 23 home runs while recording 152 strikeouts against 60 walks.

New York Yankees - Cam Schlittler

Cam Schlittler is 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 190.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 126 hits and 16 home runs while striking out 234 and walking 47.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Game Pick

• New York Yankees

New York is the pick behind a major starting-pitching advantage. Schlittler has a 1.94 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 234 strikeouts in 190.2 innings, while Peralta has a 4.56 ERA and has allowed 23 home runs. The Yankees also own MLB’s top-ranked pitching staff with a 3.21 ERA and have hit 217 home runs. Tampa Bay has the better record and leads the division, but New York’s pitching numbers and 43-33 home record make the Yankees the choice Thursday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick, with Schlittler leading a matchup featuring two top-seven pitching staffs. New York has a 3.21 team ERA and .223 opponent average, while Tampa Bay sits at 3.67 with a .228 opponent average. Schlittler has allowed only 126 hits across 190.2 innings, and his 0.91 WHIP has limited baserunners throughout the season. Tampa Bay has also played several low-scoring games recently, with three of its last five results finishing with six combined runs or fewer.