Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 23 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV and Prime Video. Tampa Bay enters at 95-60 overall and 40-34 on the road, while New York is 89-66 overall and 42-32 at home. The Rays hold first place in the AL East with a six-game advantage over the second-place Yankees and entered this series having won two straight. New York entered on a two-game losing streak after dropping two of three on the road against Arizona. Tampa Bay holds a 6-3 advantage in the completed season series entering this week's four-game set in New York. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay is scheduled to start Ian Seymour, who enters at 9-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 127.1 innings. He has allowed 113 hits and 25 home runs while recording an impressive 155 strikeouts against only 36 walks. New York counters with Gerrit Cole, who is 9-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 121.1 innings. He has surrendered 112 hits and 21 home runs while striking out 123 and walking only 22. Cole has the advantage in ERA and WHIP, while Seymour has generated considerably more strikeouts despite only a modest difference in innings pitched. Both have shown strong control, but home runs have been an issue for each, making the power numbers of these two offenses an important part of Wednesday's matchup.

Tampa Bay Brings the Better Recent Form

Tampa Bay enters Wednesday with the best record in the AL East at 95-60, including a respectable 40-34 mark away from home. The Rays went 4-1 over their five most recently completed games, beating Boston 5-1 and 2-1 after taking two of three from the Athletics. Their only defeat during that stretch was a 4-2 loss to Boston. Tampa Bay scored 23 runs while allowing only 10 across those five contests, holding four of its five opponents to three runs or fewer.

The Rays are batting .259 with 707 runs, 1,345 hits and 164 home runs. They own a .328 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay's pitching has been an even bigger strength, producing a 3.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while issuing only 385 walks. The staff has recorded 1,261 strikeouts and limited opposing hitters to a .229 batting average. Tampa Bay's combination of contact hitting and run prevention has helped produce its six-game divisional advantage entering the final portion of the regular season.

The Rays' biggest edge in this matchup could be their ability to consistently put runners on base while limiting the Yankees from doing the same. Tampa Bay's .259 batting average is 24 points higher than New York's .235 mark, while its .328 OBP also exceeds the Yankees' .311 figure. The concern is power: Tampa Bay has 164 home runs compared with 216 for New York. With Wednesday's scheduled starter having surrendered 25 homers, keeping the ball in the park will be critical. If Tampa Bay can limit extra-base damage, its superior recent form and deeper statistical profile give it a strong chance to continue controlling the season series.

New York Turns to Its Pitching at Yankee Stadium

New York enters at 89-66 overall and has played its best baseball at Yankee Stadium, where it owns a 42-32 record. The Yankees went 2-3 over their five most recently completed games, with victories of 9-2 over Arizona and 8-1 over Minnesota. Their three losses came by scores of 8-4, 5-3 and 5-4 in 13 innings. New York scored 28 runs over that five-game stretch but also surrendered 21, demonstrating the considerable offensive upside of this club while showing some recent inconsistency.

The Yankees are batting .235 with 713 runs, 1,206 hits and 216 home runs. Their .311 on-base percentage trails Tampa Bay, but their .410 slugging percentage is slightly better because of a major power advantage. New York has hit 52 more home runs than Tampa Bay despite recording 139 fewer hits. Pitching has been New York's greatest statistical strength, with a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .223 opponent batting average. The staff has also recorded 1,390 strikeouts against 466 walks.

New York's path to victory centers on pitching and power. The Yankees have a sizeable home-run advantage and the better starter ERA in Wednesday's matchup, while their season-long 3.22 team ERA is nearly half a run better than Tampa Bay's 3.70 mark. However, the Yankees are facing a Rays team that has been producing far more consistent results lately and has already enjoyed substantial success in the head-to-head series. New York's lower batting average and OBP leave less margin for error if the home runs do not arrive, especially against an opponent that has allowed only 10 runs over its previous five completed games.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

Tampa Bay is the side to back if the eventual moneyline offers reasonable value. New York owns the better starting-pitcher ERA and the better overall team ERA, but Tampa Bay brings several other meaningful advantages into the matchup. The Rays are 95-60 overall, have won four of their last five completed games and have allowed just 10 total runs during that stretch. They also hold a 6-3 advantage in the completed season series and enter Wednesday six games ahead of New York in the AL East. Tampa Bay's .259 batting average and .328 OBP provide a more consistent offensive foundation than New York's .235 average and .311 OBP. The Yankees' power makes this a dangerous matchup, but the Rays have shown the stronger combination of recent form, contact hitting and run prevention.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under becomes attractive if the total is posted at 8.5 or higher. New York owns a 3.22 team ERA and is scheduled to start a pitcher carrying a 3.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while Tampa Bay has surrendered only 10 runs across its last five completed games. The Rays have held four of those five opponents to three runs or fewer, including consecutive 5-1 and 2-1 victories over Boston. Tampa Bay's scheduled starter has given up 25 home runs, and New York's 216-homer offense represents the biggest threat to the under, but both clubs possess strong season-long run-prevention numbers. With the possibility of a relatively tight divisional game, 8.5 provides enough cushion to lean toward the under.

Final Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.