Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for Friday August 7 2026

The Tampa Bay Rays open a three-game American League series against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington, on Friday, August 7. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET, with national television coverage available on Apple TV. Tampa Bay enters at 68-46 overall and 27-28 on the road, while Seattle is 56-59 overall and 33-25 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking for additional Friday baseball predictions can visit our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Drew Rasmussen is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay against Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert. Rasmussen is 10-5 with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP through 117.1 innings. He has allowed 89 hits and 12 home runs while recording 122 strikeouts against only 20 walks. Gilbert is 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP across 132.2 innings. He has surrendered 103 hits and 17 home runs while collecting 139 strikeouts against 28 walks.

Rays Arrive in Seattle Following a Productive Sweep

Tampa Bay has won four of its last five completed games and carries a three-game winning streak into Seattle. The Rays recently swept Colorado, winning 13-9, 9-7 in 11 innings and 4-0. Tampa Bay previously split its final two games against the Chicago White Sox, earning a 1-0 victory before suffering a 9-1 defeat. The Rays scored 28 runs while allowing 25 across those five games.

The Rays are batting .258 with 510 runs, 984 hits and 116 home runs this season. Tampa Bay owns a .329 on-base percentage and a .403 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has produced a 3.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while holding opponents to a .230 batting average. Rays pitchers have recorded 931 strikeouts while issuing 297 walks.

Tampa Bay’s ability to combine consistent contact with strong pitching has produced the better overall profile. The Rays hold substantial advantages over Seattle in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits and runs. They have scored 52 more runs despite hitting 18 fewer home runs, showing that the offense does not rely entirely on power.

The biggest concern is Tampa Bay’s 27-28 road record. The Rays have been considerably better at home, and their first two victories in Colorado required 22 and 11 innings of offense and bullpen work. However, Wednesday’s 4-0 victory provided a cleaner conclusion to the series and gave the pitching staff an opportunity to reset before traveling to Seattle.

Rasmussen supplies another important advantage. His 0.93 WHIP is one of the strongest marks in this matchup, and he has issued only 20 walks in more than 117 innings. That control should be particularly valuable against a Seattle offense batting only .230. Tampa Bay also won two of the first three meetings between these teams in July.

Mariners Depend on Gilbert and Their Strong Home Record

Seattle has gone 3-2 over its last five completed games. The Mariners recently won over Detroit 4-2 after being shut out 8-0 in the series opener. Seattle previously won two of three games against Minnesota, earning 4-3 and 7-6 victories around a 5-3 defeat. The Mariners scored 18 runs while allowing 24 across those five contests.

The Mariners are batting .230 with 458 runs, 874 hits and 134 home runs this season. Seattle has produced a .310 on-base percentage and a .378 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 3.77 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average. Mariners pitchers have accumulated 980 strikeouts while issuing only 283 walks.

Power represents Seattle’s primary offensive strength. The Mariners have hit 18 more home runs than Tampa Bay, giving them a path to creating offense despite their low batting average. However, Seattle has collected 110 fewer hits and scored 52 fewer runs. The Mariners have also been shut out twice within their last six completed games.

Gilbert gives Seattle a legitimate opportunity to win a low-scoring contest. His 0.99 WHIP demonstrates that he consistently limits baserunners, while his 139 strikeouts lead the two scheduled starters. He also gives the Mariners a better chance of keeping their bullpen rested after Thursday’s series finale against Detroit.

Seattle’s 33-25 home record is another reason to avoid laying 1.5 runs with Tampa Bay. The Mariners have performed much better at T-Mobile Park than on the road and have won three of their last four completed games. Nevertheless, they remain three games below .500 overall and enter with the weaker season offense.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction

• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

I am taking Tampa Bay on the moneyline if Rasmussen and Gilbert remain the confirmed starting pitchers. The Rays own the better overall record, stronger season offense and slightly better pitching statistics. Tampa Bay has also won four of its last five games and leads the season series 2-1.

Rasmussen provides the visitors with a narrow but meaningful starting advantage. His 2.91 ERA is more than half a run lower than Gilbert’s mark, while his 0.93 WHIP is also slightly better. Tampa Bay has scored 52 more runs than Seattle and holds a 28-point advantage in batting average.

Seattle’s home record and Gilbert’s control make the run line unnecessarily dangerous. This matchup could remain separated by one run into the late innings. However, the Mariners’ .230 batting average and inconsistent scoring make them difficult to support against Rasmussen and a Rays staff holding opponents to a .230 average.

Tampa Bay is the more complete team, and its ability to manufacture runs without depending entirely on home runs should matter at T-Mobile Park. I prefer the Rays moneyline in a competitive series opener.

• Pick: Under 7.5

I am taking the under if the total is set at 7.5 runs. Rasmussen and Gilbert have combined for a 0.96 WHIP while issuing only 48 walks across 250 innings. Both pitchers consistently limit unnecessary baserunners, reducing the likelihood of either lineup producing a large early inning.

Seattle’s offense supplies additional support for the under. The Mariners are batting .230 with a .310 on-base percentage and have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five completed games. They were recently shut out by Detroit and now face a starter carrying a 2.91 ERA.

Tampa Bay scored 26 runs during the first two games at Colorado, but those performances came in a much different offensive environment. The Rays returned to a more controlled game in Wednesday’s 4-0 victory and now move to a ballpark where pitching can play a greater role.

Gilbert is capable of keeping Tampa Bay near three or four runs, while Rasmussen should limit Seattle’s inconsistent lineup. I would play under 7.5, strongly consider under eight and pass if the total drops below seven.

Projected Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Seattle Mariners 2

This preview was written prior to game play on Thursday.