Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Picks for Saturday, September 27th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The A.L. East title is still up for grabs, and the Toronto Blue Jays (92-68) will try to inch closer to a divisional championship when they host the Tampa Bay Rays (77-83) on Saturday. We’ve got you covered with our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 3:07 ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Rays Will Miss the Postseason
The expectations weren’t too high for the Tampa Bay Rays this season, but you can never count out this organization. They’re one of the best in the business at doing more with less, as they’re typically a bottom-five payroll team. That was the case in 2025, as Tampa was 26th in payroll ($86.2 million). However, the Rays haven’t had the magic this year, as they’re just 77-83 heading into the weekend. Tampa is eliminated from the postseason. Over their last 20 games, the Rays are just 6-14. They dropped Friday’s series opener to the Blue Jays in a 4-2 affair.
Friday’s 4-2 defeat ultimately fell on Adrian Houser (6.0 IP, 4 ER) in the starter’s role. Offense was tough to come by, as the Rays only mustered up two runs on six hits. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda went back-to-back in the 2nd, but that was the extent of the offensive production.
- Joe Boyle heads to the bump for the Rays on Saturday, and the 26-year-old hasn’t been overpowering in 12 appearances (47.0 IP) this season.
- The right-hander enters the weekend at 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
- Boyle last pitched on Sunday against the Red Sox, where he limited them to only one earned run on four hits and four walks over 4.1 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 7-3 victory for the Rays.
Blue Jays Competing For a Division Title
It felt like the Toronto Blue Jays were in limbo entering the 2025 season, but they’ve proven to be a great team and are now the best team in the entire American League. The Jays are 92-68 entering the weekend, which puts them atop the A.L. East and the entire A.L. With that being said, Toronto can’t just take the final two days of the season off. They’re tied with the Yankees for the divisional lead and only have a 1.0-game edge over the Mariners in the A.L. The Blue Jays do have the tiebreaker over the Yankees should the teams be tied in the divisional race after 162 games. Toronto is just 3-6 in its last nine games, but they're coming off of a 4-2 win over Tampa on Friday night.
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It was Shane Bieber who picked up the win on Friday night, tossing 5.0 innings and allowing only two earned runs. The bullpen was lights out, and Jeff Hoffman (1.0 IP, 0 ER) closed it out and logged his 33rd save. Offensively, Nathan Lukes stepped up, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI.
- Trey Yesavage will oppose Boyle on Saturday, and the 22-year-old rookie is gearing up to make his third career start.
- In 9.0 innings of work, the right-hander has gone 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.
- Most recently, Yesavage faced the Royals and gave up four earned runs on five hits and threw walks over 4.0 innings.
- He took a no-decision in a game that the Blue Jays won 8-5.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Rays vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-160) (5 units)
I don’t love laying this type of juice with the Blue Jays, but considering the stakes of this game with the division title and top spot in the A.L. on the line, I’m willing to pay the vig. I’ll take the Blue Jays to win this game against the Rays at home. Toronto has been excellent at home this year, going 52-27 SU at the Rogers Centre.
They’ll take on a Rays side that has been sliding pretty hard this month. Over the last 20 games, Tampa Bay is just 6-14. Neither team is playing its best at the moment, but as I mentioned, with the motivations high for Toronto, I expect them to prevail.
Over/Under Pick for Rays vs. Blue Jays
- Under 8.5 (-115) (5 units)
As I mentioned, neither of these teams is playing their best baseball at the moment. Specifically for the Blue Jays, their offense has been flatlining. Over the last seven days, Toronto is 28th in wOBA (.254) and 19th in ISO (.137). The Rays are 14th (.305) and 20th (.137), respectively.
Additionally, when these teams met last weekend, three out of the four games finished with four runs or fewer. The Blue Jays have now seen eight of their last 11 games finish with eight runs or fewer. With Toronto’s offense not playing its best, I think they’ll need to lean on their pitching staff to claw out a low-scoring victory. I’m taking the under.
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