Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Picks - September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC Major League Baseball action within the American League East on Sunday afternoon, we have a Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction ready to go. The Rays are not going to be in the postseason this year, while the Jays come in tied atop the AL East with the Yankees, and also hold the top wild card slot. Read on to see our Rays vs Blue Jays prediction.
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Tampa Looks To Finish With A Win
Tampa Bay dropped its sixth straight series Saturday with a 5–1 loss to the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, falling to 77–84 on the season. Jonathan Aranda provided the lone spark with a solo homer in the sixth, his 14th of the year and second in as many games. Starter Joe Boyle allowed four runs on five hits over five innings, taking his fourth consecutive loss. The Rays matched Toronto with seven hits but failed to capitalize, going 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and stranding eight.
The Rays have now gone winless in their last seven series (0-6-1), a skid not seen since 2006. Their offense continues to sputter, averaging just 3.2 runs over their last 10 games. Yandy DĂaz raised his average to .300 with a 1-for-2 day, but the lineup lacked depth and timely execution. Defensively, Tampa Bay showed flashes—Nathan Lukes was thrown out at third on a strong relay from right field—but the overall effort wasn’t enough to slow Toronto’s momentum.
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Left-hander Ian Seymour (4–2, 2.85 ERA) will start Sunday’s finale, looking to close his rookie campaign on a high note. Seymour has been one of the few bright spots in Tampa Bay’s rotation, showing poise and command across his last five outings. He’ll face a Blue Jays team that’s 70–4 when scoring five or more runs, so early damage control will be critical. With postseason hopes long gone, the Rays are playing for pride and evaluation heading into the offseason.
Blue Jays Still Can Win AL East
Toronto stayed tied atop the AL East with Saturday’s 5–1 win, improving to 93–68 and trimming its magic number to one. Rookie Trey Yesavage delivered five shutout innings in his third big-league start, striking out five and escaping a bases-loaded jam in the third. Ernie Clement led the offense with two hits, two RBIs, and two runs scored, while Alejandro Kirk launched his 13th homer in the seventh. The Jays are now 53–27 at home, the best mark in the American League.
The division race remains razor-thin heading into Game 162. Toronto holds the tiebreaker over the Yankees thanks to an 8–5 head-to-head record, meaning a win Sunday or a New York loss to Baltimore would clinch the Blue Jays’ first AL East title since 2015. The stakes are massive: the division winner earns a bye to the ALDS, while the runner-up faces a wild-card matchup. Toronto has won 11 of its last 18 and continues to thrive in high-leverage moments, with Clement, Kirk, and Andres Gimenez all contributing timely hits.
Kevin Gausman (10–11, 3.47 ERA) is slated to start the finale, bringing veteran experience and strikeout upside to the mound. Gausman has been steady down the stretch and will be tasked with delivering a playoff-caliber outing against a Rays lineup that’s struggled to generate runs. With the Rogers Centre crowd behind them and the division on the line, Toronto will look to close the regular season with a statement win.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick
Rays vs Blue Jays Moneyline Pick
- Toronto -1.5 (4 Units)
Toronto -1.5 on the run line is backed by both form and urgency. The Blue Jays have won 11 of their last 18 and are 53–27 at home, the best mark in the AL. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the finale, and while his win-loss record is modest, his 3.47 ERA and 207 strikeouts show he’s still a top-tier arm. Tampa Bay’s lineup has been cold, averaging just 3.2 runs over its last 10 games, and they’ve failed to cover the run line in five of their last six losses. With the division title on the line, Toronto is unlikely to take its foot off the gas.
The Jays have consistently handled business against sub-.500 teams, and Saturday’s 5–1 win was another example of their ability to separate late. Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement continue to deliver clutch hits, and the bullpen has been airtight in closeouts. Tampa Bay counters with Ian Seymour, a promising rookie, but he’ll be facing a lineup that’s aggressive early and punishes mistakes. If Toronto scores first and Gausman settles in, the path to a multi-run win is well within reach.
Rays vs Blue Jays Over/Under Pick
- Under 8 (5 Units)
The Under 8 is supported by strong pitching and recent scoring trends. Kevin Gausman has held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, and Ian Seymour has posted a sub-3.00 ERA over his last five outings. Tampa Bay’s offense has been quiet, while Toronto has leaned on timely hits rather than explosive innings. With playoff pressure tightening every pitch and both bullpens rested, this matchup profiles as a low-scoring, playoff-style duel.
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