Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Picks and Prediction for Monday, September 15, 2025
In our Rangers vs. Astros prediction, the Texas Rangers are third in the AL West with a 79-71 record so far. They are having young right-hander Jack Leiter get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Milwaukee Brewers, where he pitched 4.2 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits with a pair of walks and four strikeouts.
The Houston Astros are playing well as they are sitting in second place in the AL West with an 81-69 record entering this game. Right-hander Jason Alexander takes the ball and did not factor into the decision last time out against the Toronto Blue Jays, where he pitched seven shutout innings and gave up three hits with one walk and three strikeouts.
Today’s edge: MLB predictions for the Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros built on form and matchups.
Rangers Looking for AL Wild Card Berth
The Texas Rangers have been a poor offensive team as they are 25th in the sport with a .693 team OPS while averaging 4.29 runs per game. Texas has been aggressive on the bases as they are tied with the Boston Red Sox for sixth with 125 stolen bases while being caught 29 times. Shortstop Josh Smith has been hitting at a respectable level as he has a .715 OPS with nine home runs, 33 RBI, 69 runs scored, and 12 steals while being caught three times.
Jack Leiter has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the ninth percentile in walk percentage, 12th percentile in barrel percentage, 13th percentile in chase percentage, and 20th percentile in xERA. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup, sinker, curveball) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .197 batting average and .309 slugging percentage with five home runs and 56 strikeouts against it. Leiter faced the Astros twice this season and is 1-0 in 12.1 innings and giving up six runs on eight hits with six walks and 10 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Texas
- Right fielder Adolis Garcia: Quad (OUT)
- Pitcher Jon Gray: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Danny Coulombe: Shoulder (OUT)
- Shortstop Corey Seager: Appendectomy (OUT)
- Center fielder Evan Carter: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Nathan Eovaldi: Rotator Cuff (OUT)
- Second baseman Marcus Semien: Foot (OUT)
- Center fielder Sam Haggerty: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Tyler Mahle: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Cody Bradford: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Sborz: Shoulder (OUT)
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Astros Looking to Win AL West
The Houston Astros are doing a good job at the plate as they are tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for 13th in the bigs with a .718 team OPS while scoring 4.23 runs per game. The team has been a bit too aggressive at the dish as their 444 total walks is 25th in baseball. Shortstop Jeremey Pena has been swinging the bat well as he is posting a .297/.356/.460 slash line with 15 home runs, 56 RBI, 60 runs scored, and 20 steals while being caught twice.
Jason Alexander is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the first percentile in chase percentage, 12th percentile in hard hit percentage, 18th percentile in xBA, and 24th percentile in xERA. He has six different pitches (sinker, changeup, sweeper, fastball, cutter, slider) and his sweeper has been getting hit as hitters have a .290 batting average and .548 slugging percentage with one home run and six strikeouts. Alexander will be facing the Rangers for the first time in his career.
Injury Report for Houston
- Left fuekder Jose Altuve: Foot (Questionable)
- Pitcher Lance McCullers Jr: Hand (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Garcia: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Kaleb Ort: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Spencer Arrighetti: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher John Rooney: Concussion/Nasal (OUT)
- Pitcher Bennett Sousa: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Walter: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Hader: Shoulder (OUT)
- Third baseman Isaac Paredes: Hamstring (OUT)
- Second baseman Brendan Rodgers: Oblique (OUT)
- Right fielder Zach Dezenzo: Hand (OUT)
- Right fielder Pedro Leon: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Ronel Blanco: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hayden Wesneski: Elbow (OUT)
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Pick
Spread Pick for Rangers vs. Astros
- Texas Rangers ML (4 units)
When diving into the road/home splits for these pitchers, there is a bit of a gap. Jack Leiter is 3-6 with a 4.45 ERA and a .228 opposing batting average in 60.2 innings (13 road starts) while Jason Alexander is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and a .303 batting average against in 30.0 innings (seven home games, five starts) heading into this matchup. The bullpens this season also show a slight divide this season as Texas is seventh with a 3.65 bullpen ERA while Houston is 11th with a 3.75 reliever ERA. All in all, go with the Texas Rangers to win this game.
Over/Under Pick for Rangers vs. Astros
- UNDER (5 units)
These pitchers each had two starts in September and are doing well as Jack Leiter is 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA and a .250 batting average against in 10.2 innings while Jason Alexander is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 12.0 innings of work. Neither team has hit well with runners in scoring position this year as the Rangers are 25th with a .698 team OPS in those at-bats while the Astros are 22nd with a .721 team OPS with runners on second and/or third base thus far. The under has hit in three of their last four games against each other so go with the UNDER here.
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