Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Monday, September 1, 2025
In our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, the Texas Rangers are third in the AL Central with a 70-67 record so far. They are having veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin get the start as he is coming off a win against the Los Angeles Angels, where he pitched eight shutout innings and allowed three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting in third place in the NL West with a 68-70 record entering this game. Righty Ryne Nelson will be taking the ball and is coming off a win over the Milwaukee Brewers as he pitched 6.0 innings and allowed one run on six hits with zero walks and three strikeouts.
Rangers Fighting for Last AL Wild Card
- The Texas Rangers are hitting at a brutal level as the team is 27th in the sport with a .697 team OPS while averaging 4.35 runs per game.
- They have been doing a respectable job in terms of hitting homers, as they are in 15th place with 185 combined home runs.
- Left fielder Wyatt Langford has been well at the plate as he has a .784 OPS with 20 home runs, 57 RBI, 67 runs scored, and 18 steals while being caught six times.
- Patrick Corbin is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 18th percentile in xBA, 21st percentile in xERA, 31st percentile in strikeout percentage, and 54th percentile in barrel percentage.
- He has six different pitches (slider, sinker, cutter, changeup, fastball, curveball) and his sinker has been his best pitch as hitters have a .266 batting average and a .410 slugging percentage with seven home runs and 42 strikeouts against it.
- Corbin faced the Diamondbacks twice last season as he was 0-1 in 10.0 innings and allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits with three walks and 10 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Texas
- Shortstop Corey Seager: Appendectomy (OUT)
- Center fielder Evan Carter: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Nathan Eovaldi: Rotator Cuff (OUT)
- Second baseman Marcus Semien: Foot (OUT)
- Pitcher Cole Winn: Nerve (OUT)
- First baseman Jake Burger: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Jon Gray: Shoulder (OUT)
- Center fielder Sam Haggerty: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Chris Martin: Calf (OUT)
- Pitcher Tyler Mahle: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Cody Bradford: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Sborz: Shoulder (OUT)
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Diamondbacks Looking to Stay in Playoff Hunt
The Arizona Diamondbacks are dominant at the plate as they are fourth in the bigs with a .760 team OPS while scoring 4.93 runs per game. The team has been aggressive on the bases as they are 14th in the majors with 100 stolen bases while being caught 30 times. Second baseman Ketel Marte has a .291/.393/.523 slash line with 23 home runs, 60 RBI, 75 runs scored, and four steals on six tries.
Ryne Nelson has been pitching poorly, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the sixth percentile in average exit velocity, 18th percentile in hard hit percentage, 22nd percentile in whiff percentage, and 27th percentile in chase percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup) and his slider has been his best pitch as hitters have a .188 batting average and a .328 slugging percentage against it with one home run and 19 strikeouts thus far. Nelson faced the Rangers earlier this season in a no-decision as he pitched 5.1 innings and gave up five runs on seven hits with zero walks and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Arizona
- First baseman Pavin Smith: Quadriceps (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony DeSclafani: Thumb (OUT)
- Pitcher Kevin Ginkel: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Tommy Henry: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Thompson: Scapular Strain (OUT)
- Pitcher Christian Montes De Oca: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Justin Martinez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Cristian Mena: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Corbin Burnes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Puk: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Blake Walston: Elbow (OUT)
Full Game Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks -169 (5 units)
Full Game Pick Analysis
The previous seven starts show a significant difference between these pitchers as Patrick Corbin is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 32.0 innings while Ryne Nelson is 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 40.2 innings thus far. Since the All-Star break, these teams are showing a minor divide between one another on the bump as Texas is 17th with a 4.19 team ERA while Arizona is 13th with a 4.08 team ERA. The Diamondbacks won four of the previous five games against the Rangers, so take the Arizona Diamondbacks to win at home here.
Full Game Total Prediction
OVER (5 units)
Full Game Total Prediction Analysis
Since the All-Star break, these teams are hitting well as the Rangers are 10th in the majors with a .744 team OPS while the D-Backs are 16th in the sport with a .731 team OPS in that span. The ability to hit home runs shows a good number of runs should be scored. Texas ranks 16th with 29.9 at-bats per home run while Arizona is sixth with 24.6 at-bats per homer hit. The over has hit in three of the last four games between each other so take the OVER as well.
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