Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Texas Rangers visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Texas enters at 78-80 overall and 34-44 on the road, while Minnesota is 75-84 overall and 40-38 at home. The Rangers have dropped three straight games and are tied with Houston atop the AL West standings, while Minnesota enters on a two-game winning streak and sits third in the AL Central. The Twins have completely controlled the season series, winning all three previous meetings against Texas by a combined score of 25-7. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Texas had not announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was completed, creating an important element of uncertainty for Friday's matchup. Minnesota is scheduled to start Joe Ryan, who enters at 6-10 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 138.2 innings. He has allowed 133 hits and 21 home runs while recording an impressive 151 strikeouts against only 30 walks. Ryan's combination of strikeout production and control gives Minnesota an identifiable starting-pitching advantage until Texas announces its starter. His ERA is below four, his WHIP is strong, and his better than five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates that the Twins should have a relatively stable option to open this series.

Texas Needs to Reverse Its Recent Slide

Texas enters the final series of the regular season at 78-80 overall and has struggled on the road with a 34-44 record. The Rangers have lost three consecutive games, falling 7-2 and 6-3 to the Mets after closing their previous series against Toronto with a 7-2 defeat. Before the current skid, Texas had won consecutive games over Toronto by scores of 7-1 and 6-2. Overall, the Rangers are 2-3 across their last five games, scoring 20 runs while allowing 23.

The Rangers are batting .242 with 658 runs, 1,265 hits and 176 home runs this season. They own a .317 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. Texas' pitching staff carries a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 1,308 strikeouts against 485 walks while allowing opponents to bat .248. The Rangers have been the slightly better full-season pitching team compared with Minnesota, but their offensive production has lagged well behind, with Texas scoring 63 fewer runs.

The biggest concern for Texas is the combination of poor road performance and its struggles in this particular matchup. The Rangers have already lost all three games against Minnesota this season, allowing 25 runs while scoring only seven. Texas was beaten 4-2, 12-2 and 9-3 in those meetings. The Rangers need their pitching to keep the game considerably tighter this time because their offense has not demonstrated that it can consistently trade runs with Minnesota.

Minnesota Brings Better Recent Form Home

Minnesota enters at 75-84 overall but has been competitive at Target Field with a 40-38 home record. The Twins are also playing the better baseball entering Friday. They have won three of their last four and four of their last five contests, including consecutive victories over San Francisco by scores of 3-2 and 4-2. Minnesota also recorded an 8-0 victory over the Angels during that stretch. The Twins have scored 22 runs while allowing only 15 over their last five games.

Minnesota is batting .244 with 721 runs, 1,308 hits and 184 home runs. The Twins have a .316 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 1,355 strikeouts against 577 walks while allowing opponents to hit .249. Although Minnesota's overall pitching numbers are slightly worse than Texas', its offense has generated substantially more production, with advantages in batting average, hits, runs, home runs and slugging percentage.

Minnesota's primary advantage comes from the combination of Friday's known starting pitcher, better recent form and a favorable season-series history. The Twins have won their last two games while Texas has lost three straight, and Minnesota has already demonstrated that it can score effectively against the Rangers. The Twins also return home after a successful road stretch and have a winning record at Target Field. Texas possesses enough pitching talent statistically to make this competitive, but the matchup indicators lean toward Minnesota.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline

Minnesota is the moneyline selection in Friday's opener. The overall records are fairly close, but several matchup factors favor the Twins. Minnesota is 40-38 at home compared with Texas' 34-44 road record, has won four of its last five games and has swept all three previous meetings with the Rangers this season. The Twins also have the stronger offensive profile, scoring 721 runs compared with 658 for Texas while holding advantages in batting average, hits, home runs and slugging percentage. Friday's pitching situation strengthens the Minnesota case because the Twins have a confirmed starter carrying a 3.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 151-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while Texas has yet to announce its starter. Until that changes, Minnesota has the clearer path to the stronger pitching matchup and is the preferred side.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The previous meetings between these clubs were high scoring overall, but the current form points toward a more controlled game if the market gives us 8.5 or higher. Minnesota has allowed only 11 runs over its last four games and enters with a starter who owns a 1.18 WHIP and excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers. Texas has scored only seven runs during its current three-game losing streak and has produced 658 runs for the season, considerably fewer than Minnesota. The Rangers' season-long pitching numbers are also respectable at a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, suggesting they are capable of preventing Minnesota from recreating the double-digit output from the earlier season series. The unknown Texas starter introduces some risk, so this is not an under worth chasing downward, but Under 8.5 or higher provides enough margin to make it the preferred total position.

Final Picks: Minnesota Twins Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.