Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks for September 18, 2025
The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Toronto Blue Jays for their fourth meeting in as many days, and we'll review the lines and odds in our Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction. The Rays won Wednesday's game 2-1, while the Blue Jays won each of the first two games in the current series. Game 4 is set to start at 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 18.
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Can Blue Jays stay atop AL East?
No team in the American League has a better record than the 89-63 Toronto Blue Jays, but the team has yet to clinch a playoff berth–let alone the division title. With ten games left to play, they're only four games ahead of the Yankees and six ahead of the Red Sox. They'll see the Red Sox three more times before the regular season concludes, and Thursday's game against the Rays – who aren't quite out of the mix yet – is the first of four they have left to play. Can Toronto stay on top of what's been, top to bottom, the most competitive division of the 2025 MLB season?
The Blue Jays lead the league in batting average (.269), rank third in OPS (.769), and are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for fourth in total runs (757). On the defensive side, they're 19th in ERA (4.13), 10th in opposing batting average (.238), and 12th in WHIP (1.26).
Chris Bassitt will get the start for the Blue Jays in Thursday's game. He's 11-8 thus far in the season with a 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 168 strikeouts. His last start ended in a 6-1 win for Toronto against the Baltimore Orioles, but he's 0-4 in the last four games, where he was credited with the result.
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Will Rays stop their slide against Toronto?
The Tampa Bay Rays are at the end of their rope in the AL playoff race, sitting at 74-78 and nine games back in the wildcard race with ten games left to play. They haven't done themselves any favors in recent weeks, going 3-9 in their last 12 games and losing series to the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox. This team is 6-3 overall against the Blue Jays this season, but will we see the version of the Rays responsible for that record on Thursday afternoon?
Tampa ranks 14th in runs scored (673), 10th in batting average (.251), and 14th in OPS (.716) for the season. Defensively, they're 12th in ERA (3.89), seventh in opposing batting average (.236), and fourth in WHIP (1.21).
Shane Baz will start for the Rays this Thursday. He's 9-12 this season with a 5.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts. To say his record this season is streaky would be an understatement – after going 12-4 through the first 16 games Baz started this season, the Rays have only won two of his 13 starts since the calendar turned to July.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Pick
Spread Pick for Blue Jays vs. Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-160) (4 Units)
None of the first three games in this four-game set were decided by more than a run, and the Rays entered the week with a 5-1 record against the Blue Jays this season. The last time Baz pitched against the Blue Jays this season, the Rays won 3-1. The last time Bassitt pitched against the Rays this season, the Rays won 13-0. I'd take the Rays to keep this within a run.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Rays
- Under 8.0 (-105) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 7-3 in the Blue Jays' last ten games, and they've been held to two or fewer runs in each of their last six games in Tampa. It's also hit in each of Bassitt's last two starts for the Blue Jays, the more recent of which ended with the Blue Jays clamping down on the Orioles 6-1. Baz' last start against the Blue Jays, back in May of this year, ended in a 3-1 win for the Rays. I'd lean toward the under here.
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