Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Monday September 21 2026
The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, on Monday, September 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 PM ET with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Toronto enters at 76-79 overall and 36-41 on the road, while Baltimore is 75-80 overall and 36-41 at home. The Blue Jays sit fourth in the AL East, one game ahead of the fifth-place Orioles, and Toronto leads the season series 6-4. Both clubs enter Monday on two-game losing streaks, while ESPN's matchup predictor gives Baltimore a slight 54.7% to 45.3% advantage. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.
Starting Pitchers
Toronto is scheduled to start Trey Yesavage, who enters at 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 93.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed only 61 hits while recording 91 strikeouts against 46 walks and surrendering 10 home runs. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who is 6-15 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 173 innings. Baz has allowed 174 hits with 152 strikeouts, 60 walks and 15 home runs. The statistical advantage belongs to Toronto's scheduled starter, particularly in ERA, WHIP and opponents' ability to generate hits, although the supplied injury information lists Yesavage on the 15-day IL with an estimated September 21 return and Baz as day-to-day. Both scheduled starters should therefore be confirmed before wagering.
Toronto Tries to Stop Its Late-Season Slide
Toronto comes into Baltimore at 76-79 and has dropped four of its last five games. The Blue Jays lost 6-2 and 7-1 in their two most recent games at Texas after earning a 5-1 victory at home. Their other two results during the five-game stretch were 10-1 and 6-5 losses. Toronto has consequently scored only 14 runs over those five games while allowing 30, with the offense producing two runs or fewer four times. The 36-41 road record adds another concern entering the opener at Camden Yards.
The Blue Jays have a .248 team batting average with 1,294 hits, 622 runs and 149 home runs. Their .310 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage show an offense that has struggled to generate consistent power and baserunners. Toronto's pitching numbers are somewhat stronger, with a 3.92 team ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .236 batting average allowed. The staff has recorded 1,348 strikeouts against 575 walks, and Toronto owns a 42-46 record in night games.
Toronto's biggest advantage in this matchup may be its overall pitching profile. The Blue Jays have the better team ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average, and their scheduled starter also owns the better ERA and WHIP entering Monday. The problem is an offense that has gone extremely cold. Toronto has been held to eight combined runs across its four recent losses, so even a strong pitching performance may not leave much margin for error.
Baltimore Looks to Capitalize at Camden Yards
Baltimore enters at 75-80 and has also gone through an uneven stretch. The Orioles have lost consecutive games after previously winning three straight, giving them a 3-2 record over their last five. Baltimore was shut out 1-0 in its most recent completed game after losing 6-5 in 10 innings the previous night. Before those defeats, the Orioles produced three consecutive road victories by scores of 7-1, 7-5 and 2-1. They have scored 21 runs and allowed 14 over their last five, giving them a considerably better recent run differential than Toronto.
The Orioles are batting .234 as a team with 1,214 hits, 693 runs and 189 home runs. Baltimore's .315 on-base percentage is slightly better than Toronto's .310 mark, while its .395 slugging percentage also tops Toronto's .383. The pitching staff carries a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with a .253 opponents' batting average, 1,250 strikeouts and 516 walks. Baltimore is also 47-46 in night games.
Baltimore's clearest advantage is its ability to generate power and runs. The Orioles have hit 40 more home runs than Toronto and scored 71 more runs despite carrying the lower batting average. Baltimore has also been much more productive recently, scoring 21 runs over its last five compared with Toronto's 14. The weakness is a pitching staff that has been less effective statistically, particularly in WHIP and batting average allowed, creating an interesting contrast between Baltimore's stronger offense and Toronto's stronger pitching profile.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
Toronto gets the slight side lean despite its poor recent offensive production. The biggest reason is the pitching matchup, where the Blue Jays have the stronger numbers both from their scheduled starter and from the staff as a whole. Toronto carries a 3.92 ERA and .236 batting average allowed compared with Baltimore's 4.12 ERA and .253 mark, while the scheduled starters show a 3.65-to-4.11 ERA advantage for the visitors. Toronto also leads the season series 6-4. With no confirmed moneyline supplied, the Blue Jays are the preferred side provided the scheduled pitching matchup holds.
Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher
The Under 8.5 or higher is the stronger betting angle. Toronto's offense has scored only 14 runs over its last five games, including four games with two runs or fewer, while Baltimore has allowed just 14 runs across its last five. The Orioles were involved in a 1-0 game Saturday, and Toronto's pitching staff owns a solid 3.92 ERA with a .236 batting average allowed. The scheduled Toronto starter's 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP strengthen the case further. Baltimore possesses enough power to create some risk, but an 8.5 or higher total provides enough room to back the Under based on the supplied pitching and recent offensive numbers.
Final Picks: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher
This preview was completed on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.